Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/26

Locks

NBA - Hawks @ Knicks -2 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I still believe the New York Knicks are the better team in this series, and there are plenty of narratives swirling around this game that cause me to side with them here.

First, it took a buzzer-beater for the Atlanta Hawks to win a Game 1 where the Knicks didn’t play well, their best player didn’t play well, and nobody is shy about admitting it. New York swept this season series for a reason, they just had a bad game under unfamiliar playoff pressure.

Second, we see this continuously in the playoffs where the road team relaxes after stealing home-court, allowing the home team to even the series by playing with more urgency. The Knicks have maximum effort in their DNA thanks to Tom Thibodeau, and that should be on full display here.

Finally, Trae Young shushing the MSG crowd did not play well with Knicks fans or players. The full wrath of an already-rude city will be directed at Young and the Hawks in the kind of home-court environment we haven’t seen in what feels like forever. Simply put this is a better team, on its home floor, playing with tons of motivation, and a short price like this should be easy pickings.

Bonus Bet: Julius Randle will tell you that he didn’t play well on Sunday, as if a 6-for-23 shooting night didn’t make it obvious enough. If the Knicks are going to bounce back in this game they need Randle to carry them like he has against the Hawks all season. In the regular season series Randle averaged 56.3 PAR (Points/Assists/Rebounds) and tonight that prop total sits at 40.5. That should be easy to clear for a player of Randle’s caliber who will be looking to dominate Atlanta again tonight.

NBA - Grizzlies @ Jazz Team Total over 114 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

After only 41 total points in the first quarter and 92 at the half, anyone holding an over ticket for Game 1 of this series was cursing profusely. A monstrous second half came to the rescue and pushed the game over the total, despite Donovan Mitchell not suiting up.

If Mitchell is as upset about being held out of that game as reports have indicated, I’m expecting big things out of him and the Utah Jazz offense in this one. Let’s remember that Spider’s presence is a huge difference maker against this Memphis Grizzlies team, as he’s dropped 35 points both times he faced them, and Utah got over this team total both times with an average of 121.5 points.

I’m also not sure what to expect from Memphis in this game in terms of contributing to the full game total, so in a situation where Utah looks motivated to return to their dominant ways, I’ll take them to crush their isolated over.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 265-172 ATS (+82.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.