Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/26

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors -7 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TNT

At this point, we need to consider a spread like tonight’s a short number. At least by NBA playoff standards that is, with the last 19 playoff games seeing an average margin of victory of 18.9 points. This series is the same story, with no game closer than 9 points and the average margin sitting at 13.3 points. I just don’t see why tonight would be any different, especially with the Warriors having a chance to punch their ticket to the Finals on their home floor.

This series has gentleman’s sweep written all over it, with Golden State knowing they had this opportunity at home and therefore didn’t put in a max effort on Tuesday. And the Mavericks had to make it rain 3-pointers in that game with their backs against the wall just to survive. But this team is living and dying by the three-ball, alternating on-again/off-again shooting nights and that inconsistency has me fading them here. In an NBA playoffs full of snoozers, I’m seeing a comfortable close-out for the Warriors tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Draymond Green Over 0.5 Made Threes (+170)

It’s too funny that there’s this much of a plus-money return on Draymond to just knock down one from the outside. He’s only 5 for 22 from downtown in the postseason, and 1 for 6 in his 5 games against the Mavericks this season. But Day-Day is known for playoff heroics over his career, especially in close-out games. You know Dallas is going to let him shoot from out there, so if I only need one at this big of a return, it’s worth a small bet.

MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox ML @ Chicago White Sox (-110): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

I’m not happy with Boston stranding 12 runners last night, let’s just get that out of the way. They were getting hits and walks against a great pitcher, but just couldn’t bring them around. Well, they’re not facing a great pitcher tonight in Dallas Keuchel, and I see the Boston bats waking back up here.

Keuchel doesn’t seem to have a whole lot left at this point, and massive inconsistency has been the result. This is also Boston’s second look at him this season, and Keuchel just got shelled in his last start against the Yankees when they got their second look at him. The lefty is allowing a .323 batting average this season and should be an excellent victim for a hot Red Sox lineup looking to bounce back.

If Boston cashes in their scoring opportunities tonight, then Michael Wacha should take care of the rest from the mound as he’s been Boston’s best arm by far this season. The White Sox aren’t exactly lighting it up offensively lately, with just 3.7 runs per game the past 10 outings, and struggle most against righties like Wacha. Boston has won 5 straight behind Wacha, and I see them making it 6 tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ

Baseball man, it’s such a weird sport. How the Dodgers lineup got blanked yesterday by the Washington pitching staff boggles the mind, but I’m willing to bet it doesn’t happen again today. That bounce-back should lead to plenty of runs overall tonight, especially considering the Diamondbacks seem to have found something offensively.

Arizona has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 5, albeit against pitching-challenged opponents. However, this is going to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers, with plenty of middle relievers instead of their usual elite starters. That should give Arizona a better chance to somewhat maintain their hot hitting.

But this total will likely hinge on the Dodgers returning to form offensively, and I think they’re in a good spot to do it. Humberto Castellanos has avoided the Dodgers so far this season, which is fortunate for him and his .389 career batting average allowed to their roster. The offense has been picking up in general between these teams as well, with their last 4-game series averaging 11.3 runs per game. With a pitcher the Dodgers can hammer and the D’Backs looking competent from the plate, I see that high-scoring trend continuing.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 736-610 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.