Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/25

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

I don’t know what that was from the Heat in the second half on Tuesday, but a really smart and disciplined team appeared to have a collective stroke. I would not expect to see the same ugly basketball with Miami forgetting how to dribble and continually throwing the ball to green jerseys. I also don’t expect to see them shoot just 25% from beyond the arc, so a good amount of improvement in all facets should be coming from Miami tonight.

Despite Tuesday’s flop of a second half, the Heat still came up just 5 points short of what would be needed to clear this number, so that expected improvement should be the necessary boost. Given how poorly Boston has looked at home in these playoffs, Miami should be able to play better tonight. Let’s not forget that the Heat are 7-1 over this total on the road in the playoffs while averaging 116.3 PPG. I’m not letting one ugly half scare me away from what’s been a full postseason worth of impressiveness.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat +8 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

That improvement from Miami, plus the consistent struggles of Boston at home, should lead to a closer game than this spread indicates. This is the same neighborhood as the spread in Games 1 and 2 where the expectations for Boston simply weren’t in line with their play. Just because they avoided getting swept with a lot of help from Miami’s ugly second half, that doesn’t mean the Celtics will deliver a blowout here. I don’t think there’s any question that Miami is a live dog tonight, so I’ll take the generous number of points.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(1.25 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

It’s an easy argument to make that Martin is a top-3 player in this series. He’s getting starter minutes off the bench and is shooting lights out, so it’s no wonder he’s cleared this number each game. I love his chances of doing it again.

(1.25 Unit) Grant Williams Over 11.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Books figured out their mistake in hanging the number for this prop at 7.5 on Tuesday, but this isn’t enough of an adjustment. Williams is also shooting lights out while logging plenty of minutes, and the rebounds and assists are just icing on the cake to easily clear this low number.

(0.25 Unit) Grant Williams Over 10+ Points (+190; Odds via DraftKings)

As I said, shooting lights out, as in 65% from the floor, 63.6% from deep, and an increase in his scoring output every game. This is a nice return for a guy with tons of offensive potential in this game.

(0.5 Unit) Derrick White Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

White continues to torch Miami from beyond the arc, and has made 3 from deep in every game this series while steadily increasing his attempts. As long as there’s a plus-juice return on this number it’s a no-brainer.

(0.25 Unit) Derrick White Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

White’s minutes keep increasing in this series, and so does his output on this prop. The bulk of it will have to be from scoring, but chipping in a few boards and dimes should help him clear this number.

(0.75 Unit) Max Strus Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Strus has been relatively quiet in this series, especially compared to how he played against the Knicks last round. But the Heat can’t afford for him to continue that with Gabe Vincent’s status in doubt tonight. That means a lot of the scoring load will fall to him, and should help push him over this total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals +1.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on MASN2

Once again we get the Nationals against a left-handed starter, and I think books have fallen asleep on this number. Even with the Padres a fairly heavy favorite in this game, it’s rare to see a plus-juice return on the underdog Nats getting 1.5 runs. That makes Washington a good play just on principle, but it gets even better when you factor in how much San Diego has been struggling as a team plus Blake Snell’s struggles on the mound.

The Padres are just 3-7 in their past 10 road games, and a putrid 1-8 with a minus-25 run differential when Snell starts this season. The lefty has a higher on-base average allowed both on the road and in day games, and his underlying metrics show a pitcher that’s trading on name recognition alone right now. The Nats are in their much-preferred split here facing a lefty as they’re a top-7 offense against southpaws like Snell. They definitely have a shot at winning this outright, but I’ll take the 1.5 run cushion and the plus juice that comes with it.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1300-1140 ATS (+73.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.