Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/22

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Denver Nuggets ML @ LA Lakers (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN

I thought the LA defense would respond in Game 3 being on their home floor, but the Lakers are just in trouble here. This Denver offense is too unique, too skilled, and too locked in for the Lakers to handle. And it’s impossible for LA to keep up with an effective field goal percentage that’s actually below their regular season mark, which was unimpressive to begin with.

But since this game comes with the shortest spread by far in this series, I don’t love the option of taking Denver with the small number of points. There’s much more value in the plus-juice return on Denver finishing this series off tonight. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit, I don’t think LA has the energy to try and I think they know it, so I’ll take a shot on the Nuggets here.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(0.25 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 3.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Part of that unique and locked-in offense for Denver is how Murray has been shooting. He’s gone over this number the past 4 games while shooting 47.5% from deep. The Lakers can’t contend with the unique ways Denver gets him open, and I expect him to stay hot tonight.

(1 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I went away from Brown in Game 3 and regretted it, but won’t make that mistake again. I just love his usage rate as the 6th man in a very short rotation, and that’s been the key to going over this number in 5 straight games. I think he keeps those contributions going here.

(1.6 Unit) Michael Porter, Jr Over 6.5 Rebounds (-160; Odds via DraftKings)

I hate that this prop comes with so much juice, but I’m willing to lay it because of how much I love MPJ’s rebounding in this series. He’s been cleaning up on the glass all postseason, going over this in 6 of the past 7 games with 4 of those in double-digits. He seems to be embracing this role, and it should lead to another solid night on the boards.

(1 Unit) Rui Hachimura Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Rui is just a really tough matchup for the Nuggets as they pay so much attention to the bigger star Laker players. Again it’s a question of usage rate, with Hachimura getting the 5th-most run on the Lakers in this series despite coming off the bench. I think the Lakers try to exploit the mismatches he creates as much as possible as they find themselves in desperation mode tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1294-1133 ATS (+75.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.