Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/19

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

I think we see a higher-scoring game in general tonight, and even if Boston responds with a blowout, Miami’s scoring probably gets dragged upwards along with them. The Heat also went over this number in the other Game 2’s where the home team responded, so even in a loss I like their potential for plenty of scoring.

Miami is 10-2 over this number in the playoffs, 4-1 over it in all games against the Celtics this year, and averaging 114 PPG in the postseason. The shooting they had against Milwaukee showed back up on Wednesday, and while that can’t last forever, it does make them fully capable of getting over this number.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Home teams that go down 0-1 in a playoff series have to respond in Game 2 and usually do. The desperation and motivation factors are usually too much for the visitor who already did their job by stealing home court. We’ve seen 7 instances of this already in this postseason, and the home team has led by an average 11.0 point margin at half.

The Heat should have their hands full here against the motivated and desperate Celtics, who had a solid 9-point halftime lead in Game 1 before falling apart. First half strength is nothing new for Boston, who led the NBA in first-half Net Rating at plus-9.2 this season, and have improved that to plus-10.5 in the playoffs. Miami has a negative Net Rating in the postseason, and should fall victim to a Celtics onslaught early tonight.

Bonus Prop Bets

(0.75 Unit) Jaylen Brown Over 34.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Brown got over this number on Wednesday despite shooting just 1 of 6 from deep and committing 6 turnovers. He should have a much better and cleaner game here, and with him averaging 41.3 on this prop in all games against Miami, he should clear this number again.

(0.5 Unit) Derrick White Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

A Celtics bounce back will also require role players to step up, and I think that opens the door for White to continue his hot shooting from deep. He’s shooting 44.1% from downtown in the playoffs, up considerably from the regular season. He’s averaging 2.1 makes per game in the playoffs, and has multiple makes in all 5 games against Miami on the year.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on MASN

The Nats are quietly playing some pretty good baseball this month, scoring 4.3 runs per game. But their best success has been against left-handed pitching, ranking 3rd in batting average and top-10 in every other deeper metric against lefties on the year. They face another lefty in Matthew Boyd today who’s struggling lately, with a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. I think Washington is undervalued in general but especially with a strong matchup like this, so look for them to continue their success against lefties and clear this team total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN

You have to take advantage of the Rays against a mediocre right-hander, especially with them at home. Tampa leads the league against righties in scoring, OPS, weighted on-base average, weighted runs created, and basically every other stat you can think of. Adrian Houser for Milwaukee fits the bill of mediocre, getting out to a slow start this year with a 5.19 ERA and 1.96 WHIP against teams nowhere near as potent as the Rays are. Having Shane McClanahan pitching for Tampa holds the total down and creates a lower isolated number, so I see value on the Rays offense to continue their strong season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1284-1126 ATS (+73.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.