Locks
NBA LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Prop Bets (7:30 PM CT on ESPN):
(1 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Tuesday’s stat-stuffing outburst certainly padded the numbers, but this total is still below his 54.6 average for the postseason. As I said on Tuesday, as long as they keep posting it below his average I’m going to get involved, it's as simple as that.
(1 Unit) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
KCP was locked in from the floor on Tuesday, knocking down the open looks he got with the Lakers so focused on the main Denver threats. LA will have to keep focusing on slowing the stars, and that should leave opportunities for KCP again. He’s gone over this number the past 3 games, and the ex-Laker has averaged 19 on this prop in all games against his former team this season.
(0.75 Unit) Bruce Brown Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
This number didn’t adjust at all after Brown easily cleared it in Game 1, so I’m going back to the well. As expected, Brown played lots of minutes off the bench in the 8-man rotation, and will continue to have lots of playing time no matter what kind of game unfolds. His confidence appears sky-high right now, and as with KCP he’s going to have opportunities when the Lakers forget about him. This total is below his playoff average and his average against LA this season, so I’m jumping in.
(0.5 Unit) Rui Hachimura Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Hachimura got the most minutes off the Laker bench on Tuesday, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his playing time increase tonight after his defense was a key part of the LA rally. More minutes means more opportunity to contribute in both stat categories here, and I see him capitalizing. He’s trusted by the Lakers on the offensive end, and should see a high volume of shot attempts again. Add in a couple boards and he should easily reach this total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 6:45 PM CT on MLB Network
At some point age was going to catch up to Adam Wainwright, and it appears we might be there. The 41-year-old righty got a late start to the season and has allowed 4 runs across 5 innings in both his starts, one of which was against the light-hitting Tigers. Enter the Dodgers who have finally put it together at the plate and are in their preferred hitting split today.
Los Angeles ranks top-3 in baseball for most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching, including scoring, OPS, and weighted runs created. After watching them put up 17 runs in 3 games against quality Twins pitching, I expect the Dodgers to keep it going and clear this isolated number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1281-1124 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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