Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/17

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat +8 @ Boston Celtics (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

Twice in this postseason we’ve seen the Miami Heat go on the road and steal Game 1 from their opponent. And twice in this postseason we’ve seen the Boston Celtics play with their food and let an inferior opponent make it a longer, tougher series. I think the potential for both of those to continue is high, and that makes catching 8 points with the Heat very enticing.

I’m also looking at the situational spot here, with Boston coming off an emotional Game 7 on Sunday where Jayson Tatum had to go nuclear. It’s tough to replicate that kind of performance, and a more rested Heat squad can use that to their advantage. Miami also has a significant coaching edge here, and play a style of basketball that can overcome Boston’s talent advantage in a playoff environment. It’s just a lot of points against such a scrappy team, and I expect Miami to be in this one to the end.

Bonus Bet (1.25 Unit) Miami Heat/Boston Celtics Over 210.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

These teams went 3-1 over this total in their regular season matchups, and are a combined 17-7 over it in the postseason. As we saw last night with the Lakers and Nuggets, scoring is much more likely to be ramped up in the early stages of a conference finals than later when the urgency rises.

If the Heat are going to stay in this game, they’ll need to match Boston’s elite offensive efficiency to some degree. That’s particularly true if they continue to struggle with guarding the 3-ball and Boston is connecting on their high volume of attempts from deep. I think that equates to points, and enough to get over this relatively low number that’s been getting bet up by smart money.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

The game plan for Miami should be to first and foremost try to limit Jayson Tatum and prevent him from going off. That attention should leave opportunities for Brown in all phases of the game, and he’ll need to step up. Brown has a history of success against the Heat, averaging 30.3 points, 8.3 boards, and 4.3 assists in the three regular season meetings. I expect him to continue to exploit the matchup advantage and have a big Game 1 here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Oakland A’s Over 9 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:37 PM CT on ESPN+

The Oakland A’s have the league’s second-best record to the over at 27-15-2, with the best average plus/minus to the total. It’s not usually because of their offensive contributions, but instead awful pitching from both the starters and relievers. They have the highest team ERA in the league at 7.18 and have allowed the most runs in the league, 80 more than the second-worst team.

That pitching figures to remain awful today with Luis Medina starting, a righty that Arizona can exploit as one of the best teams at getting on base against right-handed pitching. But don’t discount the A’s contributing here, as they’ll face Ryne Nelson who’s been generous to just about everyone. Oakland has two 9-run outbursts in their past 5 games, and if they can plate a few then their awful pitching and defense should take care of allowing the rest.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/SF Giants Over 9 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 2:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

Both of these teams are starting bad right-handed pitchers, and both teams are excellent against right-handed pitching in general. The Phillies and Giants are both top-10 or better in batting average, OPS, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs-created-plus against righties. They both excel at getting the bat on the ball against righties, and that should matter on a day with the wind blowing out to dead center at Oracle Park.

But these are no ordinary right-handed starters, as Taijuan Walker for Philly and Ross Stripling for San Fran have really struggled. Stripling’s 7.14 ERA is actually slightly outperforming his expected ERA and fielding-independent numbers. So he’s been very bad overall and against the Phillies specifically, who have a cumulative .354 average against him. Walker has also been rough on the road with a 6.23 ERA, and gives up a lot of hard contact which the Giants excel at producing against righties. This game is a great confluence of advanced metrics that say we’ll see a lot of baserunners and plenty of scoring opportunities.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 4 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Teams have started to figure out New York starter Kodai Senga to some extent, particularly ones that are good against right-handed pitching in general. Today the Mets rookie will face the league’s highest-scoring team against right-handed pitching, with the top advanced metrics as well.

The Rays built a lot of that on their incredible start to the season, but have been crushing it at the plate again recently. This trip to New York to face the Yankees and Mets has seen them get over this team total in all 5 games so far, averaging 7.4 runs per game. With the Mets having bullpen issues lately as well, this looks like a great spot for the Rays to continue their offensive success and clear the isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1276-1123 ATS (+70.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.