Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/15

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Let’s keep whatever this momentum is at the plate going Twins! An offensive eruption for 27 runs in two days can’t be continued at that exact pace, but I think it points to the potential for them to beat this projected team total. The full-game total and therefore this isolated number is a little lower thanks to Pablo Lopez starting, and Noah Syndergaard opposing him.

But Thor just isn’t quite what he used to be, and the Twins should be able to take advantage. They don’t have a ton of experience against him, but are batting a collective .294 in the at-bats they do have. And as a righty, Syndergaard goes up against the far better split for Minnesota. This offense has been sputtering for far too long, and if this truly is the breakout we’ve been waiting for, then just 4 runs is easily attainable against a relatively vulnerable starter.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:45 PM CT on NBCS-BA

I’m playing the narrative quite a bit here as I think we get a motivated Harper today. He should be playing with a chip on his shoulder after getting ejected yesterday, plus he has a good matchup to make a statement. Giants starter Alex Wood has faced Harper 24 times, giving up 9 hits and 4 doubles for a .375 average and .970 OPS. And the Phillies star crushes the Giants in general, with a career .400 average and 1.024 OPS against their pitching staff. Harper has multiple bases in 5 of his 10 games since returning from injury, so at this plus-juice return I’ll count on him to have another solid night here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1271-1120 ATS (+69.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.