Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/11

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Philadelphia 76ers Over 212.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

My only concern here is that we’ve arrived at an elimination scenario for Boston, and that could slow tempo and maximize defensive effort. But otherwise there’s no reason to believe these teams won’t continue the offensive efficiency that has led to them averaging 221.4 PPG this series. And that elimination scenario might actually work in favor of more points, with the Celtics needing more minutes from their best lineup.

And that Boston lineup is due for a bounce back tonight on the offensive end, after shooting just 39.8% in Game 5 including 31.6% from deep. But that game still got over this total in spite of the poor shooting, and improvement from Boston should raise the points floor tonight. With Boston in desperation mode and embarrassed by their Game 5 dud, look for their offensive resurgence to carry this over the total.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(0.75 Unit) Jayson Tatum Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Another aspect of that elimination scenario is Jayson Tatum needing to log more minutes and come up with a big performance. Aside from the blowout in Game 2 where he only played 19 minutes, Tatum has averaged 43.8 on this prop during the series, and I see him eclipsing it again.

(0.75 Unit) Joel Embiid Over 41.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Ditto for Embiid on needing to play a big role with a strong performance in this opportunity for Philly to close out the series. He was shaky in his first game back, but since has averaged 43.3 on this prop and is looking more comfortable by the game.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Phoenix Suns Over 226 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

While this series is just 3-2 over this total, they’ve absolutely crushed it in both games in Phoenix. Games of 253 and 235 points were fueled by the Suns offense being so much more effective at home, which I see continuing tonight. The Suns were far better from an offensive efficiency standpoint in home games, and Denver was just 25th in defensive efficiency on the road this year.

But Phoenix has had no answer for the Nuggets offense all series, which was also extremely effective in the games at Footprint Center. With the Suns on such an incredibly short rotation, it would make sense for Denver to keep pushing pace and try to wear them down. That will have a definite impact on scoring, but with the way Durant and Booker looked in those home games I’m seeing plenty of offense from the Suns to help propel this over.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(1 Unit) Devin Booker Over 31.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

He’s the highest-scoring player in the postseason, is averaging 34.6 PPG in this series, and 38.8 in all playoff home games. The Suns simply need another massive scoring night from him and I think he delivers with the team facing elimination.

(1 Unit) Kevin Durant Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Go against KD in a playoff elimination game at your own risk, but there’s no way I’m fading him. The Slim Reaper had his best two games at home to keep the Suns alive, putting up 47 and 48 on this prop, and I’m expecting something similar tonight.

(1 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 52.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This number continues to remain high as Jokic continues to be unstoppable and break playoff triple-double records. The Joker actually had his best games of the series in Phoenix as far as this prop is concerned, putting up 64 and 68 in those losses. Phoenix has no answer for him, it’s as simple as that.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1264-1109 ATS (+73.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.