Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/06

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers 1st Quarter Under 55 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Despite a high-scoring game on Wednesday, these teams pushed on this number in the first quarter. That continues a fairly low-scoring trend for them across all meetings this season, going 4-1-1 to the under against this number on the year. They’re only averaging 49.5 first-quarter points across those 6 meetings, and I’m seeing another low-scoring start to this one.

The Heat have scored 31 and 30 points in the first two games of this series, well above the norm for them. I’m seeing some regression coming for them being on the road, just as they did in the two road games against Atlanta. With the Sixers in an obviously dire spot here down 0-2 and missing their best player, I would anticipate them leaning on defense early in this game. If Philly puts up a fight and Miami reverts to form, we should see a first quarter under tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 53.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’ll be the first to admit I did not see this kind of scoring coming from this series. Phoenix absolutely shooting the lights out definitely helps scoring, and I’m not sure Dallas has an answer regardless of them being at home. The result has been blistering starts in both games, with these teams putting up 60 points in both first quarters. The Suns certainly have the firepower offensively to continue this torrid start, and the style these teams have been playing definitely lends itself to over bets cashing.

What gets me most here is the number itself and where it is relative to the first two games. Those had full-game totals that were 2 and 5 points lower than tonight, yet the first quarter totals were higher than this. That’s a strange alignment and is creating value on the over here in my opinion. When I see a first-quarter total that’s less than 25% of the full-game number – particularly in the playoffs – I just have to take the over.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Phoenix Suns PK (-110)

Well, the Suns haven’t lost to Dallas all season, covering the number in the past 3 meetings, so will they drop their first tonight? I’m really not seeing it, as all the positives Dallas took out of Round 1 seem to have evaporated. While it’s perhaps the best chance for the Mavericks, they just appear to be up against a juggernaut that can truly expose their weaknesses.

I also take issue with the number here, as a 6-point move from the first 2 games is too much to award a team for simply being at home. The Mavs have gotten superhuman efforts from Luka Doncic, shot it well overall, and still haven’t been truly competitive so far. Phoenix seems primed to make this a short series, and I see them grabbing another win tonight.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Chris Paul Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)

After some remarkable performances already in these playoffs, what does The Point God have in store on his 37th birthday? It’s tough not to root for CP3 in general, but especially knowing that he’s now doing this at age 37. The Mavericks haven’t had many answers for him this season, as he’s averaged 33.4 on this prop across the 5 meetings. He’s also 6-2 over it in the postseason so far, and with a birthday boost, I see him getting over it again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 711-579 ATS (+82.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.