Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/02

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat -4 First Half (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

This is a tough playoff series to handicap based on the regular-season series, which saw 4 games get split between these teams. You’d be hard-pressed to find more varied lineup combinations for both squads across those games due to injuries, COVID absences, and the late acquisition of James Harden for Philly.

But there’s one key to the lineups that should make all the difference here, and that’s Joel Embiid is out for at least a few games. That might seem fairly obvious, but let’s quantify just how obvious it is. The Sixers are a monster with Embiid on the floor this season, producing a NET rating of plus-7.9 when he plays. Phoenix, with the best record in the NBA, also led the league in overall NET rating at plus-7.5 this season, just for some perspective. But when Embiid is not on the floor for Philly, that NET rating takes a nosedive to minus-3.6, which is obviously not good and puts them at a serious disadvantage tonight.

The Heat were actually 3-1 to this number in the regular-season series, with an average halftime margin of plus-7.3 points. With a hyped home crowd and serious advantages over the Embiid-less Sixers, I see them having strong early success before the break.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Philadelphia 76ers Team Total Under 100.5 (-110)

This is a really low number for a Sixers team that has averaged 110 PPG on the year, and it’s maybe a little too correlated to the bet above. But again it’s all about Embiid’s absence. Philadelphia averaged exactly 100 points against Miami this season, and Embiid played in 3 of the 4 games. The Heat defense just showed what it can do against an offense with only one true scoring option, shutting down the Atlanta Hawks last round. Given the metrics splits mentioned above, I expect that defense to be the story here as well.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns Under 215 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Under bets are all about pace and defense, and these two elite defensive squads have been playing at a crawl. Both the Suns and Mavericks are top-6 in defensive efficiency this season, and Dallas led the league in points allowed. Dallas was also the slowest-paced team in the league at 95.6 possessions per game, which has dropped to 91.2 in the playoffs. Phoenix has also slowed down, averaging 94.7 possessions in the playoffs which is 5.5 fewer than the regular season.

If the regular-season meetings are any indication this should be a grind, as those games were 2-1 under this number, the highest-scoring of them only hitting 216, and averaged just 209.7 points. These teams are also built to slow each other down, with both offenses relying heavily on pick-and-roll but both defenses are extremely stingy against those sets. I was surprised to see this total move up from the open, so I have to go against the steam here and take the under.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-110)

The Suns actually swept the season series against Dallas with an average 7.7 point margin of victory but were only 1-2 ATS in the process. And given a sweep by Phoenix with each win by more than this spread, why did this line open at 6 points and immediately see movement towards the Mavs? That’s a sharp move, and I agree with it.

Perhaps more notable about the season series is that all of the meetings came before the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and Luka Doncic only played once. This is a much different Dallas team now, built on elite defense and possessing a superstar who looks healthy. Since I’m also expecting a lower-scoring game, the dog has some natural value, so I’ll follow the smart money and back Dallas to keep this close.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ Baltimore Orioles (+115): 6:05 PM CT on Bally Sports North

You have to like what the Twins have put together over their past 10 games. A stretch of 9-1 which includes 6 wins by 2-plus runs, and 5 wins over the White Sox and Rays. While they don’t appear quite as inept as usual, the Orioles should be much less of a challenge for Minnesota and allow them to continue that hot streak. Strong pitching, timely hitting, and the discovery of their much-anticipated power seem to be keying this run for the Twins.

I’m also eager to see another start from Chris Paddack tonight, who has improved his numbers in every outing so far and should contain the light-hitting Orioles. And if the improving offense keeps it up tonight they should have no trouble against Tyler Wells, who has seen all 4 of his starts turn into Baltimore run-line losses by an average of 4 runs. This is a nice plus-juice return as well, so I’ll back the Twins to stay hot and win another easy one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 707-569 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.