Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/29

Locks

NBA - Nets/Pacers over 239.5 (-110): 6:00 CT PM on NBATV

This is a high number and rising, but there’s reason to trust that we’ll see this game get over the total.

The Indiana Pacers own the league’s 2nd best record to the over, along with the highest plus/minus to the total. The Brooklyn Nets come in with the 4th best record to the over and are cashing overs as a road favorite at a 68.4% clip. These are also the 22nd and 23rd ranked teams in points allowed, and mixing Indiana’s 6th fastest pace with Brooklyn’s top-rated offensive efficiency is a recipe for plenty of points.

Indiana is also still missing Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis for this game, minimizing rim protection and maximizing a perimeter-oriented style of game that got the Pacers wrecked by the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Simply put, the Pacers are easy pickings for a good offense right now, and I expect Kevin Durant and Co. to make up for lost time and score at will here to carry this game over.

Bonus bet: I’m cautiously optimistic about Brooklyn’s chances to cover the spread of -8.5 given Indiana’s atrocious 8-21 ATS record at home and their injuries detailed above. NBA teams often bounce back after beatings like the one the Pacers took on Tuesday, but this Nets team who is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 is not what you want to see in that situation.

I’ll take a small shot on the Nets to cover this big number.

Degenerates

NFL Draft Prop Value Bets: 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

Over 5.5 QBs in 1st Round (+400)

I love the juice on this, and I’ve also seen it coming down significantly over the past couple of weeks indicating that books are worried about their exposure. We know the absolute floor for QBs in the first round (and maybe the first 10 picks) is 5, so that creates a huge window to add just one more. Plenty of teams have traded into the late first round for a QB to gain that extra year on their contract, and at this price, I’ll roll the dice that just one from the 2nd tier of QBs goes before the night is up.

Justin Fields No. 3 overall pick (+600)

Nobody has been more oddly coy about their draft strategy than Kyle Shanahan, so who really knows what the San Francisco 49ers will do after trading up to 3rd overall. Yes, Milquetoast Mac is the heavy favorite to end up a Niner. But in my mind, Justin Fields deserves consideration as the most talented QB in this draft, and he was talked about all year as a lock for the New York Jets at No. 2 until they fell in love with Zach Wilson.

At 6 to 1 on my money, I’ll take a shot that the 49ers have been running a smokescreen this whole time and grab Fields.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah first LB drafted (+700)

This comes down to Micah Parsons, the clear top LB prospect, dropping due to off-the-field and attitude concerns. That kind of knocks against a player has become more of a factor every year, and if he falls far enough and plenty of trade chaos happens, a team in need of LB like the New York Giants or Philadelphia Eagles could end up with Owusu-Koromoah. At these odds, I’ll take a shot at that happening.

Dallas Cowboys first pick to be a tight end (+2000)

How can you not love getting 20 to 1 on this? Cowboys fans and anyone who’s even heard of Jerry Jones knows he loves doing crazy stuff on draft day, and that his opinion supersedes all logic and team needs. Word out of Dallas is that Jones has fallen in love with Kyle Pitts and is open to trading up for him. Adding Pitts would give Dak Prescott may be the best assortment of weapons in the league, so at these odds, I’ll take a shot on Jones doing something reckless to supercharge his offense.

Tiny Nick is 235-153 ATS (+72.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.