Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/28

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks PICK @ Utah Jazz (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

This line has been bouncing all over the place after the beatdown Dallas put on the Jazz in Game 5, plus uncertainty around the status of Donovan Mitchell. Reports are that Mitchell will give it a go tonight, but I’m just not a believer in him being anywhere close to 100% with both a hamstring and quadriceps injury. I am a believer in the Mavericks, however, as this team has the look of a serious contender in the Western Conference.

Dallas delivered that 25-point thrashing of Utah on Monday despite a fairly ugly shooting performance. The defense that carried them in that game is for real and should have no trouble handling a Utah offense that gets short on options with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell. We’re at that stage of a playoff series where a Jazz meltdown is almost to be expected, and I’m seeing it here. The Mavericks are the superior and healthier team, so take the cheap price on Dallas and don’t overthink this one.

Degenerates

NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors +2 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Go ahead Doc Rivers, be the first coach to flush a 3-0 series lead in NBA history with the supposedly-retired Philly favorite Jay Wright just lying in wait. But seriously, don’t trust Rivers in close-out games because he’s lost 7 of the past 8 that his teams have played in. Toronto looked pretty outmatched in Games 1 and 2, but that was a big shift in star health ago. The return of Scottie Barnes and injury to Joel Embiid have flipped this series on its head, as has the coaching and lineup manipulations from Nick Nurse.

The Raptors are fighting a lot of history in just trying to send this to a 7th game after being down 3-0, much less become the first team to ever win such a series. But this really looks like a meltdown on Philly’s part, and I want to be on the Toronto side if and when that happens. I’m concerned about this being a little too popular of an underdog play, but I’ll trust the Raptors to at least put a scare into the Sixers here.

Tiny Nick is 704-567 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.