Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/27

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks -4 1st Quarter (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

If I’m the Bucks here, I can’t help but look ahead to the next round and see a healthy Celtics team waiting. Already down Khris Middleton, it would behoove Milwaukee to not mess around one bit in this game and risk the further injuries or fatigue that an extended series could bring. So that tells me they’re going to get off to another one of their fast starts here.

Already the league leader in average first-quarter margin, the Bucks have improved their numbers in that stat category through this series. Now they get a severely wounded Bulls team as both Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso will be out tonight. This number is somewhat inflated compared to the full-game spread, but I’m not laying 12 points in an NBA playoff game. Expect the Bucks to be focused early and take no mercy on a Chicago team they need to dominate in this spot.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors Over 225.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

For the vast majority of the season, Golden State was making its name on the defensive end of the floor. That had them in the top spot for defensive rating and efficiency, as well as being an under machine. But what I’ve seen in the last few games of the regular season and this series reminds me of the Warriors of old, and that makes this team a prime over bet.

The defensive efficiency numbers are dropping, the offensive efficiency and pace numbers are skyrocketing, and the result has been this high-scoring series. With 4 straight overs and an average of 235 PPG, this has been the series with by far the most offense in these playoffs, and I don’t see it slowing down tonight. The Nuggets are not going to stave off elimination in this game with defense, and they’ve had no answer for Golden State’s outside shooting all series anyway. I expect another track meet tonight with Denver’s desperation only adding to the scoring, so I’m on the over here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 703-566 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.