Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/26

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 59 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Four games in this series, four overs in the first quarter to the posted numbers and tonight’s number. That’s pretty strong consistency, especially with the full-game totals going just 2-2 in those games. The fact that both games at Target Center saw this prop hit is very encouraging since games there have been so much lower-scoring. And if these teams can clear this number in the disastrous Game 3, which only hit 199 total points, then they can do it here.

I’m surprised to see this number not in the 60s given that Games 1 and 2 in Memphis were the two highest-scoring first quarters. Wolves road games have been fertile ground for over bettors in general, and these teams have been true to form in getting out to high-scoring starts. While it’s true that things might tighten up defensively now the series is tied, that’s more likely to happen late in the game. I trust that the trends and how these teams like to play will get another high-scoring opening quarter here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat 1st Quarter Under 56 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Sunday made it four in a row on this bet as well, and I see tonight making it five straight. If ever there was cause for concern it would’ve been Sunday’s first quarter, which saw the return of Clint Capela for the Hawks. His absence has really hurt their offensive scheme, but he was still a non-factor. And for Miami, missing Kyle Lowry’s perimeter defense for that game was also a concern.

But in the end, neither player’s status could flip this trend of low-scoring starts. Lowry will be out again tonight and Capela is questionable, so I don’t see much drastic change from how Sunday played out. Congrats are in order for odds makers for actually moving this number down a little bit after 4 straight unders and 47 average points. But it’s not enough of a move to dissuade me from continuing to bet what has continued to cash.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 9.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

If you’ve been blindly betting unders in Major League Baseball lately, congratulations to you for becoming independently wealthy. Blame it on weather, an abbreviated spring training, or un-juiced baseballs, whatever the cause is we’re just not seeing much scoring. But those blind bets don’t always work, and you’ve actually only cashed 1 under ticket in the 6 combined starts for tonight’s pitchers.

Jake Odorizzi has been horrendous for the Astros, never getting out of the 5th inning in any of his 3 starts, and has already allowed 12 runs. Texas might not be the best team to take advantage with their suspect lineup, but they’ll have to score to compensate for their own starter’s woes. Taylor Hearn has gotten progressively worse across his 3 starts this season and is a great victim for an Astros lineup looking to break out of a slump. This total is likely depressed by the recent unders trend, but with meatballs being thrown from tonight’s starters I think it becomes an outlier.

NHL (0.5 Unit) Detroit Red Wings/Toronto Maple Leafs Over 7 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’ll be the first to admit I know hardly anything about hockey. In fact, if you put me on ice skates, I’d probably cash my over on broken bones inside of a minute. But I can spot a trend, and the trend here says we’ll see a lot of goals tonight. These teams have played 3 times this season, scoring a total of 37 goals and putting up 9 in the lowest-scoring of those meetings.

I’m also told by a hockey source I trust that Detroit goalie Thomas Greiss is exactly who you want in net for an over, especially with the Red Wings already allowing the 2nd-most goals in the league this season. Detroit is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, so should have trouble keeping up with a Toronto team that plays extremely fast. These teams combined for 17 goals in their last meeting, which isn’t likely to repeat but all I’m asking for is half that. Let’s be honest, my first foray into hockey wasn’t going to be an under, so I’ll count on another high-scoring affair between these teams.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 702-564 ATS (+86.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.