Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics +1.5 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

This Brooklyn team just has the look of a dysfunctional group that would like Boston to put them out of their misery. I see the Celtics getting the brooms out and doing just that tonight. And the market appears to agree, moving this line down from 2.5 to here. Some of that is due to Ben Simmons canceling his expected return, a situation that only adds to the dysfunction and misery for the Nets.

But mostly I’m just seeing a far superior team in the Celtics, with a defense that has been clamping down increasingly more on Brooklyn throughout this series. Only allowing the Nets to score 103 points in their own building is an incredible defensive performance, and should continue with how they’ve managed to contain Kevin Durant. With the Celtics also getting Robert Williams III back into the lineup, they can truly regain the powerhouse status they had before his injury. I’m not walking into the trap of a short price being dangled on a highly public Nets team, so I’ll back Boston to finish them off here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Celtics 1st Quarter Team Total Over 26.5 (-110)

I’ve been riding Boston’s isolated totals in just about every way possible this series against the porous Nets defense. And with the Celtics averaging 27.7 first-quarter points in the series and 29.1 all season, this seems a little low. I’ve also noticed Boston falling in love early in games with three-pointers, which they’ve shot a little poorly this series. There should be positive regression coming on those shots that I think helps push them over this number tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks -3 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

Before Luka Doncic injured his calf, the Mavericks were a team I saw doing a lot of damage in the postseason. His return on Saturday – and high level of play – have completely changed the outlook of this series, regardless of whether Utah escaped with a win. Just as a general principle, the Jazz are not a team you should have any faith in come playoff time, which they showed in squandering a 16-point lead on Saturday.

But the keys here are the availability of Doncic and the way Dallas plays defense at home. In the two regular-season meetings in Dallas, Luka was dominant in scoring 32 and 35 points on 52.3% shooting. And that elite Dallas defense completely shut down Donovan Mitchell, holding him to 29 combined points on 28.1% shooting. Stars need to play an even more outsized role in the playoffs, and if that drastic disparity plays out again, we’ll see Dallas roll. The Mavs have already been the better team this series, so with home court and Doncic getting up to speed, I see them putting Utah on the brink tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 699-564 ATS (+84.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.