Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Denver Nuggets Over 224.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

Along with failing to cover in their past 7 playoff games, Denver has gone over the total in 10 of their past 13 postseason tilts. That’s pretty strong consistency and should tell us a lot about how today’s game will play out. I’m fairly confident the Warriors finish off the sweep today given their strength and those ATS woes for Denver, so that puts the Nuggets in the position of playing from behind.

With Denver then forced to push the pace, this scorching-hot Warriors offense will get even more opportunity to put up points in bunches. The Nuggets showed some improvement offensively being in their own building on Thursday, and that should continue here. While the price to back the over here has climbed incrementally throughout the series, there’s a reason these teams are 3-0 to it so far. I don’t see anything slowing down the Warriors' offense here, which has been the driver of overs all series and should again today.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Atlanta Hawks 1st Quarter Under 57 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

After just 46 points in the opening quarter on Friday night, this prop moves to 3-0 in the series. Each time it’s been against the same posted number, so the books just refuse to adjust. It’s simply shocking to me that you can look at a team like Miami – with arguably the best defense in the NBA – and think they won’t be executing at a high level defensively to start games.

Then toss in the fact that Atlanta has seen 10 of their past 13 playoff games go under, so they turn into a different kind of team in the postseason. I just really think oddsmakers are over-reaching here with the concept of more points early in playoff games, as this number in a regular-season game would imply a total of about 10 points higher than today’s full-game total. These teams just aren’t getting off to that kind of a start, and I’m liking the opportunity to take advantage again here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 697-564 ATS (+83.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.