Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/23

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 57 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Scoring for the full game has dropped considerably between these teams in Games 2 and 3, easily cashing the under. But that didn’t stop them from getting to the over in the first quarter of either game, and the bet is now 3-0 in the series. They’re also averaging 66.7 points in those opening quarters, and it’s mostly been driven by hot starts from the Wolves, who are scoring 37.3 themselves.

I’m also expecting a better first quarter from the Grizzlies here, after only 21 points to start Thursday’s game. Improvement from them plus consistency from Minnesota should make this another fairly easy one, especially with a discounted number here. This prop has gone from 62 on Tuesday, to 58.5 on Thursday, to just 57 here, the result of the full-game totals coming down. But these teams are who they are, like to get out to fast starts, and should create another high-scoring first quarter tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Utah Jazz Over 212.5 (-110): 3:30 PM CT on TNT

While this is an upward adjustment from the totals so far in this series, I would have expected a much more dramatic move. Especially after consecutive overs and Thursday’s 244-point offensive eruption. But oddsmakers are beholden to their models, which tell them Dallas is the slowest-paced team in the league, with an elite defense and the best record to the under.

That’s just ignoring how these teams have been playing though, both in the regular season and this series to where they’re now 6-1 over tonight’s total. It’s also ignoring the full-on defensive collapse from Utah on the perimeter, allowing Dallas to drain threes at will. And with Jason Kidd “optimistic” that Luka Doncic can play in this game, that perimeter defense will look even worse. I would’ve expected to see this total in the range of 216 or higher, so I’m really liking the value here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 110.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m fairly confident that the full game gets over the total of 222.5 here, so let’s officially toss another quarter unit on that. But I’m a lot more confident that regardless of the game’s outcome and where the total lands, the Celtics can clear this isolated number.

Based on how they’ve performed against the Nets this season – particularly in Brooklyn – and against this number overall, I’m seeing a lot of value here. Because Brooklyn is favored in the game, that drops Boston’s team total down despite scoring 114 and 115 in the first two games. That puts them 5-1 over this number against the Nets on the season, averaging 119 points. They’ve also gone over this number in 13 of their past 14 games overall.

Brooklyn actually struggles even more on defense when playing at home, with worse numbers for points allowed, defensive efficiency, and opponent shooting percentage. While they might not drop 126 or 129 like they did at Barclays Center in the regular season, Boston should have no trouble finding their way over this relatively low number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 696-561 ATS (+84.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.