Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/20

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/Boston Celtics Over 226 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT

Sunday’s Game 1 between these teams was a classic and got over its total and tonight’s total in the process. But there were some elements to that game that make me believe scoring wasn’t anywhere close to maximized.

First is the fact that Kevin Durant had a terribly inefficient game, needing 24 shots to score just 23 points. Strong Boston defense or not, that simply isn’t the playoff version of Durant we’re accustomed to, yet Brooklyn still scored 114 points. They also managed that many points with no-show games in the scoring column from most of the key role players. Additionally, Boston’s 19-point dud of a 4th quarter was 12.5 points below what they’ve averaged in the 4th against Brooklyn this season.

I would expect all of those elements to revert towards the mean and boost scoring in this second game. There’s a reason why these teams are now 4-1 over this total on the year with 230.8 average points, and it should show tonight in another high-scoring meeting.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers +1 First Half @ Toronto Raptors (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

This is simply a value play to go against public steam and to zig where books expect you to zag. There is a common sentiment in betting the NBA playoffs that a team returning home down 0-2 will come out in desperation mode, taking a lead after the first quarter or half. The long-term data actually suggests it’s not that strong a trend, but oddsmakers have more than adapted to the perception and are charging a premium to bet on it.

This game is the perfect example, where Philadelphia finds themselves favored by 2 points in the game but an underdog in the first half. The NBA playoffs are just about the only place you’ll find that disparity in a line, and I’m not buying it. The Sixers are clearly the superior team here, with far more talent, better health, and two dominating performances thus far. The Raptors might be able to ride emotion for a little while in this game, but I expect we’ll see those advantages materialize for Philly by halftime. I just have to go against the public narrative here and take a number with value on the better team.

NBA (1 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 First Quarter (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Things really are that simple with this Milwaukee team, as their first-quarter dominance continued on Sunday in a game they nearly squandered. This team just knows how to start fast, and knows how to maximize the fact that Chicago has no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

In that first quarter on Sunday, the Bucks put up 34 points with a 136.0 offensive rating, building a 13-point lead. In fairly ugly fashion they only managed 59 points the rest of the game, with subsequent offensive ratings of 68.0, 88.5, and 76.0 in each quarter. But the close call resulting from that sloppy play should motivate and focus the Bucks to come out strong again here.

And it’s not like we just saw anything uncharacteristic from Milwaukee, as going back several seasons they typically open a home playoff series slowly against mediocre competition. But Game 2 is where they dial it up several notches, and tonight should be no different. This is the exact same number as Sunday’s first quarter, so if the books aren’t changing anything, I’m not changing my approach to betting this game.

Degenerates

NBA Philadelphia 76ers First Half Team Total Over 54.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

This is a slightly correlated bet to taking the Sixers in the first half on the spread. If Toronto does indeed come out strong early in this game, it will likely drive up scoring in general and force Philly to keep up. With their best defensive player in Matisse Thybulle out, the Raptors could certainly take advantage on offense.

But the 76ers have certainly shown an ability to score at will against the Raptors in the first two games, particularly early on. With first-half outbursts of 69 and 67 points, Philadelphia has looked unstoppable on offense out of the gates. And compared to second-half outputs of 62 and 45 points, they’re doing the bulk of their scoring early. That makes this number have natural value since it’s just shy of half their full-game total, so I’ll count on the Sixers to keep up the early scoring here.

Tiny Nick is 691-556 ATS (+84.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.