Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/19

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 61.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV

This number doesn’t make a lot of sense from an odds-making standpoint, and it’s not adjusting in line with how the full-game total has from Saturday’s meeting. In that Game 1, we saw a first-quarter total of 61, which was easily cleared with a monster 74-point outburst. That, along with 247 points in the game, should cause more than a half-point move, especially with the full-game total up 5 points from Saturday.

Both of these teams consistently score more early in games than they do late, and that’s also typical of NBA playoff games in general. So while it’s still a big number, it’s just not a big enough adjustment. I would’ve expected books to account for everyone seeing that 74-point quarter and price them out of chasing it today. But the two highest-scoring first-quarter teams in the league only padded those numbers on Saturday, and I expect them to do it again tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): D'Angelo Russell Over 18.5 Points (-110)

It’s going to take more than that strange game by Russell to deter me from consistently betting his point prop in this series. The results from the season are too strong to ignore, and that’s likely why this number is the same as Saturday’s despite Russell only putting up 10 points. This should also be a bounce-back game for DLo after he went just 2-for-11 from the field, and with more opportunity available if Memphis focuses on not getting torched by Anthony Edwards again. I’m not scared that easily, and I trust Russell to find his groove in this one.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat -7 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

If the higher-seeded home team delivers a blowout in Game 1 of the first round, they generally back it up in the next game. We saw it last night with the Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors both putting up another lopsided win in their respective Game 2’s, and I’m seeing it here.

This is a bad matchup for Atlanta in general, as the Heat have too many excellent defenders at every level of the floor. Injuries are really catching up to the Hawks as well, especially down low as no Clint Capela or John Collins is allowing Bam Adebayo the freedom to wreak havoc on Atlanta’s pick-and-pop game.

Yes, I’d obviously expect a better game from Trae Young here after making just one shot on Sunday. But don’t discount the potential for positive regression out of Miami, as the trio of Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry combined for just 22 points. It’s scary to think the Heat have room for improvement after a 24-point beatdown, but this team is too talented with too many advantages across the board to allow Atlanta any hope in this Game 2.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 689-555 ATS (+83.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.