Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/18

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 First Half (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I’ll be honest, I did not see that kind of night coming from Philadelphia on Saturday, especially considering how they’d performed against Toronto in the regular season. The Sixers executed to perfection on offense, posting an offensive rating that’s 3rd-highest in the history of play-by-play data. Obviously, that’s not sustainable long-term, but it’s more likely to be sustainable early in this one than any other timeframe, especially with Philly looking to press their advantage in this series.

The injury factor is also huge here, particularly Scottie Barnes who is unlikely to play. Add in doubtful tags for Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young, and I’m just not seeing where the Raptors get enough offense to keep up. But I’m still skeptical that a team as well-coached as Toronto will take consecutive blowouts in the playoffs, making the full-game number a little too big for me to lay. I’ll count instead on the 76ers to stay hot early and put it on cruise late against a shorthanded opponent.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 Made Threes (+110)

Is he going to make 5 again this game? I wouldn’t count on that necessarily, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Maxey take 8 or so attempts again tonight. The Raptors already had their hands full trying to slow the Embiid/Harden duo, which created the opportunity for Maxey to go off like he did. That defensive focus shouldn’t change, and a depleted Toronto team will have even less ability to deal with Maxey. The opportunity should be there, and a plus-juice return here makes it worth a shot.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz -1.5 First Quarter @ Dallas Mavericks (-110): 7:30 PM CT on NBA TV

I’m only making this bet because of the relative certainty that Luka Doncic will remain out tonight. The Mavericks gave their absolute best effort in Game 1 without their star player, frustrating the Jazz early but eventually falling short. It’s not too surprising to see a team rally in that spot like Dallas did, especially behind a hyped home crowd. What was surprising, though, was the early no-show by Utah’s stars, something I see turning around tonight.

Donovan Mitchell in particular was a non-factor early in the game, only coming alive after halftime. He and Rudy Gobert combined to shoot 10-of-30 from the field, and the Jazz still ended up winning and covering. The Jazz have a troubled playoff history for sure, but I just don’t see the Mavericks being able to use the same smoke and mirrors like they did on Saturday. I’d also expect far better early efforts from the entire Jazz roster, getting them off to a solid start and early lead after a quarter.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 687-554 ATS (+83.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.