Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 114.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
For neutral observers of the NBA this is easily the most compelling first round series, and I don’t see either team changing much from the regular season here. That would mean the Nets aren’t likely to play much defense, and the Celtics should continue their offensive momentum. So regardless of who comes out on top in this game, I still like this isolated total to go over.
The Celtics have cleared this team total in 10 of their past 12 games coming into the postseason, averaging a monstrous 125 PPG in that stretch. They also averaged 121.3 PPG against Brooklyn on the season, going 3-1 over this total. But you have to consider that the one time they didn’t came in November, long before Boston found their groove. This Celtics team is extremely capable of carrying that offensive success into the playoffs, and may need to if Brooklyn’s style turns this into a shootout.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter -3.5 (-110): 5:30 PM CT on TNT
This is just a bad matchup for the Bulls in every which way, and I’m fully anticipating a series sweep to follow Milwaukee’s regular season sweep. That also has me seeing the defending champs get out to another strong start here, which they’re used to in general and against the Bulls specifically.
Within that season sweep of Chicago, the Bucks led after a quarter by at least this margin 3 times, with an average 5.8 point lead. Milwaukee is also 2nd in the NBA in first quarter margin, while the Bulls are 18th and have actually averaged a half point deficit in first quarters. Chicago will have no answer inside for Giannis Antetokounmpo all series long, and I see him powering the Bucks to a big start here.
Bonus Bets: (0.5 Unit) Brook Lopez Over 4.5 Rebounds (-110) & (0.25 Unit) Over 1.5 Made Threes (+120)
Due to his short and injury-plagued season, we haven’t seen much out of Brook Lopez yet. But he should play a key role in this series given Chicago’s weakness on the interior. Lopez was available for two of the games against the Bulls this season, grabbing 6 and 7 rebounds in those contests. Chicago is 28th in offensive rebounding rate, so Lopez should have plenty of opportunity to clean the defensive glass.
The Bulls are also just 27th in opponent 3-point percentage, and Milwaukee takes the 4th-most shots from deep in the league. From a pure volume standpoint and with plus-juice here, it’s worth a shot that Splash Mountain splashes multiple looks tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Made Threes (+120): 8:00 PM CT on TNT
There’s plus-juice on the over here for good reason if you’re looking at Bridges for this full season. The Suns forward is only averaging 1.4 made threes per game on 3.8 attempts over the course of the year. But it’s been a different story versus New Orleans, against whom Bridges is averaging 3 makes on 5.5 takes across the 4-game season series. And he only fell short of this total once, going 1 of 4 in Phoenix’s lone loss to the Pelicans this season. The Pels are just 26th in opponent 3-point percentage, so even though the Suns and Bridges aren’t known for volume shooting from deep, just getting him to drop 2 is worth the plus-juice return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 684-552 ATS (+82.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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