Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/16

Locks

NBA (1.5 Unit) D’Angelo Russell Over 18.5 Points (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

I’m not going to make a pick on the side of this game because I can see paths for both teams to cover – and win – this opening game. But I’ll be rooting for the Wolves, and this prop bet gives me skin in the game in a semi-neutral sort of way. Plus, I simply can’t believe what I’m seeing with this number, which has lazy odds-making written all over it.

D’Angelo Russell has averaged 18.1 PPG this season, so this number makes sense, right? Well not if you isolate what he’s done against Memphis on the year, who has no answer for him. The Wolves point guard has averaged 31.0 PPG against the Grizzlies in their four meetings, with a 28-point game being his worst output. It’s not like he was forced to carry the load either, as the normal starting lineup was used in every meeting. Memphis has been forced to play a lot of drop coverage against D’Lo, allowing him to rack up a plus-11.6 NET rating against them, and I don’t see that changing here.

With this being the playoffs I’d also expect starter minutes to increase, giving Russell even more opportunity. Wolves player props haven’t been my best friend this season, but this one just seems too easy to pass up.

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 61 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

Over bets are tough in the playoffs, when games get tighter and defensive intensity ramps up. But I can’t look at a game with the two highest-scoring first quarter teams in the NBA and see anything but an over here. I fully expect the Grizzlies to come out of the gates fired up and hot, pushing the pace early like they always do. And after some postseason jitters caused a lackluster first quarter in their Tuesday game, I’m also expecting the Wolves to get off to a much better start today. Despite this being a somewhat inflated number these teams cleared it twice in the regular season, and I’m seeing a fast-paced start here as well.

Tiny Nick is 684-551 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.