Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/13

Locks

NBA Basketball - LA Clippers -2.5 @ Indiana Pacers (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

This line offers the “no Kawhi Leonard discount” and it’s looking like the perfect spot to grab it with the Los Angeles Clippers.

For a decent team, the Indiana Pacers are shockingly bad at home. They have just two home wins since Feb. 2nd, against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons, and own the 2nd worst home ATS record at 7-17 on the season. What I like about the Clippers here is their performance against the number in road games, as they have the best ATS margin of victory on the road at 5.3 points per game.

With no Myles Turner to bully the Clippers down low, I like L.A. to win the battle on the perimeter and have that be the difference. At this number you’re essentially asking the Clippers to win against a team they’ve already beaten by 33 this season, and I see them getting it done as the Pacers fail to protect home court again.

NBA Basketball - Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns -3 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Arizona

Can the 2nd place team in the Western Conference with the best ATS record in the NBA get some respect, please?

I’m seeing the opposite of respect in this number and think it’s a good buy-low opportunity on the Phoenix Suns. Admittedly, they took the Houston Rockets a little too lightly last night, watching a 24 point lead melt to five as they looked ahead to tonight’s game. That performance and the back-to-back spot is being baked into this line, but Phoenix is actually 8-4 ATS on back-to-backs and 6-3 ATS when facing a rest disadvantage.

The Miami Heat are only 10-12 ATS against Western Conference opponents, including a 110-100 home loss to Phoenix three weeks ago with a healthy roster. I just don’t think the situational spots are factoring enough into this line, so give me the Suns to get another home win and cover.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 223-141 ATS (+74.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.