Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/13

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Trae Young Under 31.5 Points (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

Trae Young might be blossoming into one of the best offensive guards in the NBA, but the Charlotte Hornets have him figured out. Ice Trae has not gone over this point total in any games against Charlotte the past two seasons, averaging just 17.5 PPG on 35% shooting. That includes his worst shooting night of this season just a month ago, where the Hornets held him to a mere 9 points.

With this being a win-or-go-home game for both teams, I expect Charlotte’s defensive strategy of forcing the ball out of Young’s hands to be dialed to the max. I also expect overall defensive intensity to be at a maximum, and again see a lower-scoring game here with fewer points to go around than you might expect (the under 236 is definitely worth a quarter-unit play given these teams averaged 226 PPG on the season).

Since the calendar hit March, Young has hit this point total in only 8 of 21 games. I see him falling short again given his history with the Hornets.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 Made Threes (+105): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

If Trae Young is going to struggle in this game, someone needs to pick up the slack on the offensive end. I see Kevin Huerter playing an important role in that considering how he has thrived whenever Young has struggled. For a guy who averages just 12.1 PPG on the season, Huerter really steps it up against the Hornets to average 18 PPG across the 4 meetings.

With Huerter’s point prop at just 12.5, I’d say his over is worth a look for half a unit, but I’m more focused on this plus-juice return. That scoring increase has been buoyed by him splashing 4, 7, 2, and 4 treys on 54.8% shooting from long range in the season series. His 4.3 makes per game are almost double his season average of 2.2, so everything increases against Charlotte for him. The Hornets are 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage, and 29th in opponent makes from downtown this season so the opportunity should be there, and I see Huerter capitalizing.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 678-550 ATS (+81.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.