Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/08

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Detroit Pistons First Half Over 111.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV

This is another undervalued first-half total, sitting at far less than 50% of the full game number and not accounting for how these teams have played recently. I’m not worried about Milwaukee contributing their share in getting over this number one bit. The Bucks are 4th in first-half scoring, plus they make a point of running it up early as they’re 2nd in average first-half margin. A Detroit team that’s still 23rd defensively and 24th in first-half points allowed shouldn’t offer much resistance.

So the question becomes whether the Pistons will do their part here, and I’m inclined to say they will. Their offense has improved considerably in recent weeks, and when matched up with other fast-paced teams they’ve put together some very high-scoring first halves. Plus, the season series has seen these teams go 2-1 over this number while the full-game under hit in every meeting. Milwaukee is also on a back-to-back here, and since they’re playing for seeding with every game they should have the pedal down tonight. I see all that leading to an early over cash on a highly discounted number.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Oakland A’s @ Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+115): 2:05 PM CT on MLB Network

I’m cautiously dipping my toe in the baseball waters here and automatically fading a decimated Oakland team. I just don’t know where the offense is going to come from for a squad that shipped just about every important bat out of town this offseason. I really don’t see them managing too well against Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who typically dominates right-handed hitters, and which Oakland’s lineup is full of.

What I’m impressed with however is Philly’s lineup, which added Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to insulate reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. That should provide plenty of run support for Nola today, even against Frankie Montas, who looked a little shaky in spring training. I like the chances of Philadelphia cruising by a multiple-run margin here, and I especially like this plus-juice return.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 671-547 ATS (+79.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.