Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/07

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Team Total Over 27.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

This is a massively discounted number for a team that leads the NBA in first-quarter scoring and has been crushing their team overs for months. Memphis is putting up 30.1 points on average in first quarters this season, the result of an up-tempo style to start games. Denver should be a willing partner in a high-scoring first quarter, as they’re 5th in first-quarter scoring and just 17th in points allowed.

That should create a scoring environment conducive to Memphis finding their way over another early team total. The Grizzlies are 12-3 over this number in their past 15 games overall, and 3-0 over it in the season series with Denver so far. There are some injury concerns with Memphis that are no doubt holding this number down. But the Grizzlies have shown incredible consistency this season regardless of who’s in or out, so I’ll welcome the discount here and look for another high-scoring start in this game.

Degenerates

NBA Boston Celtics +6.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

With these teams part of a 3-way tie in the loss column of the Eastern Conference standings, I have to anticipate this will be a very tightly-contested game. Even though I seem to be on the wrong side of the steam here, those stakes are making this just a little too big of a number. Not to mention the Bucks are 1-2 straight up and 0-3 ATS against Boston this season, so the Celtics have the recipe to handle them.

These teams also haven’t faced off since Christmas, well before the Celtics put everything together and turned scorching hot. But all of the previous meetings had Robert Williams playing his critical role on the interior of the Boston defense. His absence could easily lead to Giannis Antetokounmpo going wild tonight, but I still believe the Celtics can compensate in other areas to keep this close. With seeding implications, a national TV spot, and a possible playoff preview here, I’m happy to take two full possessions of points with the team that’s dominated the series thus far.

Tiny Nick is 670-547 ATS (+78.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.