Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 4/04

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) North Carolina vs. Kansas -4 (-110): 8:20PM CT on TBS

It's been incredibly impressive to see North Carolina make it this far, but I see them coming up just short tonight. Kansas has been the best version of themselves since halftime of their game against Miami, and that makes this a tough matchup for the Tar Heels.

It's the perimeter defense from the Jayhawks for me, as they've really clamped down on some excellent outside shooting teams. They'll need to do it again with the insanely hot shooting from UNC carrying them to this point. But the length of KU on the perimeter should bother the smaller Heels guards. Meanwhile, red-hot Brady Manek will face the most athletic and versatile defender he's seen all year in Jalen Wilson.

I also see the suspect UNC defense continuing to struggle with defending in space here. Kansas has the talent, depth, and health advantages here, so if they limit UNC from outside, they can win this comfortably. I'll be laying the points with the Jayhawks here.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Over 151.5

I also like the chances of this to be a high-scoring affair given all the scoring talent on both teams, plus UNC being weakened inside with Armando Bacot's bad ankle. Neither team had trouble finding the range on Saturday, somewhat rare for games in the Superdome which has historically presented tough shooting visuals. The rumors of soft rims may well be true, so I'll look for plenty of points again here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 669-543 ATS (+78.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.