Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/30

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Toronto Raptors Over 229.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

After their game in Boston on Sunday hit 246 points, it’s safe to say Wolves road overs are still a solid bet. While Toronto can defend with the best of them, they can also take advantage of suspect defenses like the one Minnesota takes on road trips.

The Raptors have averaged 117.5 regulation points per game in their past 4 home games, and two of those came against teams that are top-5 in defensive rating. With the Wolves 24th in defensive efficiency in road games, I’m confident the Raptors will have no trouble putting up points in this one.

They’ll likely have to, as Minnesota’s offense is clicking right now and averaging 124.4 PPG since the All-Star break. But they’re also allowing 118.3 PPG on the road in that stretch, so this game has all the makings of a shootout.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/Boston Celtics Over 212 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is another low number for Miami, who has gotten over low totals all season to be the 2nd-best over team in the league. Add in Boston’s top-rated defense to the Heat’s elite unit and a low total makes sense from a macro perspective.

But there are a few factors being overlooked here, most important being recent form. Miami’s very public internal strife saw them allow 113 PPG during the 4-game losing streak, and that defense could falter again facing a Boston team that has crushed them in both meetings this year. The Celtics for their part might have the best statistical defense in the NBA, but that hasn’t stopped them from hitting the over in 6 straight. Those games have averaged 233.5 points and speak to Boston finding an elite offense to pair with that defense.

Injuries and availability will also play a big role tonight. Robert Williams being out for Boston really impacts their interior defense, so Miami can get plenty of easy looks inside. With the Heat also back to near full strength, their offense should contribute enough to keep pace with an explosive Boston team, getting the game over this low total.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -5 (-110)

I mentioned Boston has crushed Miami in both meetings this season, and it has not been pretty: a 17-point win in Miami early this season, plus a 30-point drubbing in Boston 2 months ago. Those results came before the Celtics truly put it all together and reeled off 22 wins in 26 games. The Robert Williams injury is big, but that seems to be built into this number. I’ll back Boston to get another comfortable win here, especially with Miami’s recent struggles.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs 1st Half Over 113.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

These are two elite scoring units, particularly early on in games, and I see another shootout to start this one. Among the many things Memphis leads the NBA in is first-half scoring at 59 PPG, including 65.3 in their last 3 games. San Antonio is no slouch early in games either, ranking 6th in the NBA in first-half scoring at 58.2 PPG and 68.7 in their past 3 outings. But the Spurs also allow the 6th-most points before halftime, so Memphis should again be able to have their way here.

An overlooked aspect of the three meetings between these teams so far this season is how the first halves played out. While the full-game under hit in each meeting, the first half over was 2-1 and they averaged 123 points. Both offenses are in a groove right now, and I see plenty of fireworks early in this game.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

I have it on expert authority that the Grizzlies are just really good. If you’re worried about their prospects here without Ja Morant, don’t be. Memphis is actually 17-2 straight up without Morant in the lineup, and are outscoring their opponents by an average of 18.5 points in those games. They might have to do it without Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight, but that was no problem on Monday when they pasted the Warriors by 28 points without him or Morant. Injuries don’t seem to matter for this team, and with a 3-0 ATS record against the Spurs on the season, I’ll back them again tonight.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns Team Total Over 112.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Everything from health, to rest, to revenge is working in Phoenix’s favor tonight, and I see that resulting in a big night for them. There is also a confluence of pretty significant trends here, as the Warriors defense has been awful, allowing 120-plus in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Suns offense couldn’t be much hotter, going over this team total in 8 straight while averaging 129.4 points.

Phoenix hasn’t gone over this team total against Golden State yet this season, but they haven’t played since Christmas and a lot has changed in three months. The Suns in their current form should be able to carve up a Warriors defense that has fallen a long way since these teams last saw each other. Phoenix should also be out for revenge after lopsided losses in the two previous meetings. But regardless of the game result, I see the Phoenix offense staying red hot and clearing this isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 664-536 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.