Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/29

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Dallas Mavericks Under 219 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

With LeBron James unlikely to play in this game, I just don’t see where the Lakers are going to find offense. That’s especially true against a Mavericks team that’s making its name on the defensive end right now and has been an ATM for under bettors.

The Mavs have played above this total just twice in their past 11 games, cashing the under in all the others. While the Lakers’ poor defense tends to get them into higher-scoring games on the road, I just don’t see it happening tonight due to Dallas employing the league’s slowest pace. That slow tempo and a steadily improving defense are the drivers of Dallas being the best under team in the NBA, both overall and in home games.

The Mavericks have already shown they can shut down the Lakers this season with LeBron in the lineup, going under this total in both the previous meetings. Without having to face the league’s leading scorer, I see Dallas grinding this game down into another low-scoring under.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St. Bonaventure -1.5 vs. Xavier (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

St. Bonaventure has been extremely impressive in making their way through this NIT field. The Bonnies have had to win three straight road games as an underdog against tough teams in really tough environments.

With them now heading to Madison Square Garden it becomes almost a home game for the New York City school and eliminates the home-court advantage Xavier has relied on to get here. The Musketeers just haven’t fared well away from home, especially down the stretch of the season. And without Paul Scruggs to create for them off the dribble, this excellent Bonnies defense should lockdown on the perimeter. SBU also has one of the best shot erasers in the country with Osun Osunniyi, who Xavier simply can’t match from a strength and physicality standpoint.

At this point in the season, St. Bonaventure is simply the better team and are showing why they were so highly regarded to start the year. The Bonnies have been excellent in closing out tight games, and I’m backing them to handle a Xavier team that’s out of its depth here.

Degenerates

NBA Milwaukee Bucks +1 @ Philadelphia 76ers (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

Unfortunately, most of the value here has evaporated, as Milwaukee opened as a 4-point underdog but has been bet down to nearly pick here. All that Bucks steam is due to all of their stars likely available tonight, and I like the odds of a fully healthy Milwaukee team in this spot. I’m just not very trusting of the 76ers at this point after some strange performances, and a team that’s this talented but just 11-17 ATS as a home favorite is concerning.

It’s also a difficult situational spot for Philly, as they’re returning home from a tough road trip out west. Teams are often flat in their first home game after trips like that, and a fully-staffed Bucks squad can make life difficult if you start slowly. Milwaukee is also looking for a bounce-back here after a short-handed roster got beat up in Memphis. I expect them to come out strong with a chance to leapfrog Philly in the standings, so I’ll follow the steam here and back the short road dog.

Tiny Nick is 664-534 ATS (+81.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.