Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs -4 First Half @ Houston Rockets (-110): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet SW

The Spurs might be pretty far down the Western Conference standings, but this team is showing a lot of improvement that I’m looking to take advantage of here. I’m also eager to fade Houston off their recent upswing that saw them beat a couple of teams even worse than they are. San Antonio has a play-in berth within reach but can’t afford a slip here, as this is one of just three remaining games against teams not currently in the playoffs.

That has me believing they’ll take advantage of a Rockets team they’ve mostly dominated this season. It’s been the case early on in meetings between these teams, as San Antonio has held the lead at halftime in all three games by an average 7.3-point margin. With the Spurs also expecting Lonnie Walker IV and Devin Vassell back tonight, I see them wasting no time in turning this into a rout, so I’ll lay the shorter halftime number.

NCAA The Basketball Classic (1 Unit) So Utah/Fresno St. Over 136.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a very low total for a Southern Utah game, but also the highest total Fresno State has seen in over two months. Oddsmakers decided that Fresno – as the home team with a higher power rating – would be the team to set the pace in this game.

With the Bulldogs 351st in possessions per game, it makes sense to see the number open so low. But that’s just not how Fresno has approached this tournament, with their pace and scoring rocketing up to send both games into the 150s for points. That’s just fine by Southern Utah, a fast-paced team who has seen all three of their games in this tournament easily clear this total, along with 8 of their last 10 overall.

I’m expecting Fresno to set the pace here, just in their newfound postseason style and not at what their season-long metrics would imply. Smart money immediately recognized the same thing and pushed this number up, so I feel confident we’ll see another high-scoring game for these teams.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 663-533 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.