Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/26

Locks

NCAA Basketball Classic (0.5 Unit) Portland/Southern Utah Over 154.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The Elite 8 might be going on, but I can’t ignore the possibility of another shootout involving this Portland team. After putting it all together in the middle of February, the Pilots have reeled off a 7-1 record to the over. When Portland faces up-tempo teams like Southern Utah, who is 53rd in possessions per game, the scoring explodes. After erupting for 94 points against New Orleans last week, the Pilots are now 9-2 over this total against fast-paced and/or defensively-challenged opponents.

Southern Utah won’t be caught putting much effort in defensively, as the Thunderbirds are just 251st in adjusted defensive efficiency. But they can fill it up behind excellent guard play and an offense that’s 51st in effective field goal rate. It’s shown in this Basketball Classic tournament, with them averaging 82.5 PPG against a couple of opponents known for good defense. I expect this to be extremely fast-paced with excellent shot-making from both teams, and that should get over tickets to cash here.

NCAA Tournament (0.25 Unit) Villanova +2 vs. Houston (-110): 5:10 PM CT on TBS

If I don’t back Villanova at all here, I won’t be able to live with myself. I picked them in my bracket contest, on my podcast, and on the Cy Amundson Show, so I’d better put my money where my mouth is. This is a little scary because of how good Houston has looked in taking down Illinois and Arizona, dominating on the inside against bigger teams. But Villanova is a very similar team to the Cougars, as both are extremely disciplined and well-coached squads that will not beat themselves. In a matchup like that, I’m generally looking to catch points in what should be a close game.

Nova will have to continue to make timely three-pointers in this one, as well as stay lights-out from the charity stripe. Those are the two areas where the Wildcats hold a significant edge over Houston, plus the intangible of veteran leadership from Collin Gillespie. Be sure to monitor Gillespie’s health as his surgically-repaired knee was rolled up on against Michigan, but with him ready to go I like holding 2 points of insurance with what’s become my team.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Arkansas/Duke Over 147 (-110): 7:45 PM CT on TBS

I just can’t look at this game and see anything other than a high-scoring affair. I said in the first round that the pace of Arkansas would speed up an extremely efficient Vermont offense, leading to plenty of points. Well, Duke is far more dangerous on the offensive end, owning the 2nd-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating. Once they found the range on Thursday against an elite Texas Tech defense they couldn’t miss, ending the game with 8 straight made field goals.

Arkansas was more than willing to push the tempo against Gonzaga. They fell short of the total due to severely inefficient offense, as their top scorer JD Notae went 9 for 29 from the floor. But if they create a similarly high-possession game against the Blue Devils, this total is very attainable. Duke’s defense has only shown up late in games, so I expect this to be a back and forth affair for most of the night. And with a Final Four berth on the line, there could be plenty of desperation fouls and free throws to push this over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 661-532 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks