Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 228.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

When these teams met on Monday – and only combined for 218 points – it was a clash of opposing trends. That’s not so much the case tonight, as the Mavericks are still the best under team in the league but Minnesota goes from the best road over team to a profitable home under team. The Wolves also have the league’s 3rd-lowest average margin to the total in home games, so they tend to go well under the number.

This total is only a point lower than that of Monday’s meeting, which strikes me as a big miss by the book that’s relying too much on Minnesota’s recent offensive form. But it’s ignoring how the Mavs play, and how these teams play each other, with all three meetings staying well under this number and averaging 116.7 points. Dallas will continue to play at the slowest pace in the NBA here and rely on a defense that seems to consistently frustrate the Wolves. With playoff seeding also at stake, I see defense being the priority here as another meeting of these teams stays under.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Iowa State/Miami First Half Under 62 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TBS

Iowa State has one chance in this game, and that’s to make it as ugly and low-scoring as possible. Fortunately for my Cyclones, they’re really good at that, especially in the postseason so far. Including their early exit from the Big 12 tournament, all three of ISU’s postseason games have seen the first half go under this total, averaging 51.7 points. That’s not too much of a surprise for the team that’s 285th in first-half scoring and 11th in first-half points allowed.

Miami is far closer to the mean in those statistics, although when matched up against a defensively-tough USC team in the first round there were only 51 points at the break. Yesterday’s first batch of Sweet 16 games saw first halves go 4-0 to the under, likely a result of unfamiliar shooting lines in neutral venues and defensive intensity at this stage of the tournament. I see this one as a low-scoring grind overall, but I’ll focus on the first half here to avoid any extra scoring from late-game fouls or overtime.

Degenerates

NCAA Tournament St. Peter’s +13 vs. Purdue (-110): 6:10 PM CT on CBS

Okay, I’ll admit, this is just me wanting to say that I’m peacocking. But look, St. Peter’s is the 2nd-best ATS team in the country, and 13 points is a lot of cushion. The Peacocks also have a little bit of history on their side, as the other No. 15 seeds to reach the Sweet 16 both covered the spread. Ultimately, I think the size of Purdue is too much for a small St. Peter’s team, but that doesn’t mean they can’t keep it relatively close.

Purdue has a tendency to let teams hang around due to their questionable defense that’s just 89th in adjusted efficiency. A St. Peter’s team that’s 16th in three-point defense will have its hands full against the 4th-best three-point percentage team, but limiting the Boilermakers at all from the outside will keep them in this game. Both squads play at a slow pace, so if it turns into a lower-scoring game, I like getting this many points with such a scrappy underdog.

NCAA Tournament Providence +7.5 vs. Kansas (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TBS

The path to the Final Four and even the national title is parting like the Red Sea for Kansas. But that can create a lot of pressure and distractions for a team that I think has a fight on its hands tonight. Providence just never goes away, as their talent and coaching are both severely underrated. Coach Ed Cooley also gets to play the disrespect card again tonight, which has worked fabulously so far in this tournament.

As a result, the Friars are simply excellent as an underdog, going 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up when catching points this season. Their discipline, luck factor, and balanced scoring help keep them in games, and I don’t see that changing here. Bill Self has also struggled against the Big East since he arrived at Kansas, going just 6-14 ATS overall and 1-4 ATS in the tournament. Providence was the team to take smart money when this line opened, and I agree that they can hang around here, so I’ll take the points.

Tiny Nick is 659-532 ATS (+80.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.