Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/21

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) LeBron James Over 30.5 Points (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

It’s truly amazing to see LeBron James tied for the NBA’s scoring lead at this point in his career. How long he can sustain this level of performance is a good question, but both the narrative and numbers say he’ll continue it tonight.

Even without the current tear that he’s on, it would be expected to see him put up big numbers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. That’s because his original franchise is the one he averages the most points against out of any in the league, scoring 29.1 PPG in games against the Cavs. Add in his recent form of averaging 33.5 PPG in the month of March with a couple of 50-pieces included, and I see another big night from King James here.

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves/Dallas Mavericks Under 230.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

It’s unstoppable force versus immovable object here as the strongest possible trends run straight into each other. What to do when the league’s best over team meets the league’s best under team? Not to mention the league’s best road over team visiting the best home under team.

I’m looking at the under here for a few reasons, not least of which is simply going against the narrative of the Wolves being on fire which steams totals upward. Mostly I’m looking at two teams jockeying for position in the playoff race, only separated by 1.5 games. These teams only have a handful of games left, and I think the added stakes will turn up the defensive intensity for both teams. It happens every night in this league, where close games down the stretch see a drop in scoring as defense becomes a priority.

These teams hit 216 points in both previous meetings this season, so they know how to slow each other down. And the Mavericks have had just 3 home games this calendar year go over tonight’s total, with one of those needing overtime. I have to go against some strong trends, but I just see this as a little too high, so I’ll take the under.

Tiny Nick is 658-530 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.