Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/19

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half Over 119.5 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’m wary of overs for Wolves home games where they’re just 15-20, but far less concerned about the first half of those home games. That’s especially true for this matchup that has two of the three highest-scoring first-half teams in the league. Both teams have been on a tear offensively to start their recent games, particularly the Bucks who are 8-2 over this total in their past 10 games.

Even the first meeting between these teams, which stayed under the full-game total, had 124 points at halftime. I’m looking at a number here that’s less than half the full-game total and pits two of the fastest-starting teams in the NBA, so that has me going over early.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Providence -3 vs Richmond (-110): 5:10 PM CT on TNT

What a fascinating matchup here between a team in Richmond playing with house money, and a team in Providence playing the disrespect card. Both wrecked a lot of trendy bracket picks on Thursday, but I think the end comes for Richmond here. This has all the makings of a hard-fought and tight game, which is right in Providence’s wheelhouse as the nation’s luckiest team.

But the Friars didn’t need too much luck on Thursday as they did an excellent job shutting down the prolific SDSU 3-point shooting. They’ve been excellent at defending the perimeter all season, and will need it today against a Richmond team that takes a ton of threes. But I don’t see Richmond having enough of an answer defensively, as Providence has a plethora of scoring options on the floor at all times. The Spiders got lucky themselves with Iowa pulling their usual tournament no-show, but a motivated Friars squad will be a different story and end Richmond’s run here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Memphis +6.5 First Half vs Gonzaga (-110): 8:40 PM CT on TBS

If Gonzaga starts as slowly as they did on Thursday against Georgia State, they’ll find themselves in a lot of trouble here. While I expect them to be far more focused, this Memphis team presents challenges for the Bulldogs that they haven’t experienced since early December. The Tigers have finally started firing on all cylinders, and their extraordinary athleticism is going to present challenges for Gonzaga before halftime adjustments can be made.

That’s why I expect the first half to be fairly close, especially if the Tigers are able to make this game be played in the open court. There’s no question that Memphis, one of the highest-rated analytical teams the past several weeks, will punch Gonzaga in the mouth here. I’m down on the Zags in general and think they’re a soft team, so a tough opponent like Memphis definitely has the ability to put another early scare into the tourney’s top seed.

NCAA CBI (0.5 Unit) Middle Tennessee -6 vs Cal Baptist (-110): 4:00 PM CT on FloSports

When you take this Cal Baptist team out of California, bad things happen. The Lancers have been terrible away from home this season, losing their non-conference road games by an average 21.3 point margin. And when they visited competent WAC teams this season, CalBap was 0-5 and lost by an average 7.6 point margin. To top it off, the last time this team saw the floor they got blown out of the conference tournament by 30 points.

So with all that said, I don’t see much success for them today against a Middle Tennessee team that finished the season with the best ATS record in the country. This might be on a neutral court, but the Blue Raiders are simply more talented, more athletic, and more driven than the Lancers. I expect them to take out some frustrations from their epic 3OT loss in the C-USA tournament here. They have the perfect victim for it in front of them, so I see a blowout coming.

NCAA The Basketball Classic (0.75 Unit) New Orleans/Portland Over 154 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m so glad I get another chance to bet on this Portland team, as the Pilots are still a well-kept secret, especially with the NCAA tournament overshadowing this game. But this one is going to be all about pace and shot-making, as New Orleans enters as the nation’s leader in possessions per game, and Portland has been on fire offensively to close the season.

And when you speed the Pilots up you get points, as their games against up-tempo teams and/or bad defenses averaged 166.2 points and went 8-1 over this total. You won’t catch New Orleans playing much defense, as the Privateers are 314th in points allowed. They’re also 5-2 over this total in their past 7 games, all against Southland competition that can’t score anywhere near the level Portland can. I’m seeing the Pilots getting whatever they want tonight, and this should be mostly a pick-up game style that carries it over.

Degenerates

NCAA Tournament Michigan +6.5 vs Tennessee (-110): 4:15 PM CT on CBS

Which Michigan team will show up in this one? The Wolverines have had quite a rollercoaster ride through their last two games. They dominated Indiana early before collapsing, then missed their alarm on Thursday morning before dominating the second half against Colorado State. At their best, Michigan is certainly a match for Tennessee, but will have to fully exploit their best advantage.

That’s on the interior with Hunter Dickinson, whose size presents issues for a weaker Volunteers frontcourt. Michigan is also very good at defending the three, which Tennessee has fallen in love with as the season has progressed. If the Vols shoot it the way they did on Thursday just about nobody is beating them, but I’ll count on them cooling off a little here. Juwan Howard as a player and coach has never gone out before the Elite 8, so with two full possessions covered by this number I’ll take the points with Michigan.

Tiny Nick is 653-530 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.