Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/08

Locks

NBA (0.25 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/Charlotte Hornets Over 240.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on YES

Are you going to take the under in this game? With Kevin Durant looking like his old self, Kyrie Irving playing since it’s a road game, and going up against the fast-paced poor defense of Charlotte? I wish you luck, but that’s not where I’m putting my money.

The north-of-240 total has been a rare sight in the NBA this year, and it’s being hung for good reason here. Brooklyn showed its potential on Sunday, putting 120 points on Boston, which has arguably the best defense in the league. But, not surprisingly, this team still can’t stop opponents from matching their scoring, so Charlotte’s pace and volume 3-point shooting should pile up points in a hurry. I expect the stars to have big games here, and for this one to go back and forth all night in a classic shootout.

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Golden State Warriors Over 221 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

As long as Draymond Green remains out for Golden State – which is likely just this week – I’ll be taking the over in Warriors games. They just don’t fully know how to operate their defense without Green, and the results speak for themselves.

The games he has missed have averaged 224.4 total points, a stark contrast to early in the season when the Warriors were building up the metrics that still give them the NBA’s top defensive rating. They’ve also gone 17-9 over this total without Green, and are currently on a 9-1 run to the over.

The three previous meetings with the Clippers have seen two go over this total, including the last one with Green out. While the Clippers can be wildly inconsistent, their accuracy from long range has the potential to turn this into a shootout. The Warriors also rested all their stars last night, so expect a big performance from them in a game that stays true to the current trends.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) NDSU/SDSU 1st Half Over 71 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Oddsmakers know that the second halves of college basketball games tend to be much higher-scoring, particularly in tournament settings with late desperation fouling. But that creates a discount on the first half and creates an opportunity here with how these teams have been playing.

Both of SDSU’s tournament games thus far have oddly seen the first half tally more points than the second, going from 90 to 76, and then 85 to 58. While those swings can be explained by the Jackrabbits slowing things down late, it shows that the team is coming out firing in this tournament.

They’ll need to against NDSU, a team that sleepwalked through the first 20 minutes of this tournament but has played 3 straight perfect halves of basketball since. The Bison have put up 50, 48, and 44 points in those halves, and are a team that can trade blows with SDSU when their shots are falling like this. Look no further than the regular-season meetings, both 4-point games with 76 and 85 point first halves. Both squads are in peak form, and they’ll show it tonight by lighting up the scoreboard early.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 634-514 ATS (+78.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.