Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/05

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

If you’re looking to bet on a team to start strong, look no further than the Memphis Grizzlies. This is the highest-scoring first-quarter team in the league, they have the 3rd-best average first-quarter margin, and the top first-quarter margin in home games. Now compare that to Orlando, and you'll find the Magic score the fewest first-quarter points, and have the 3rd-worst margin both overall and on the road.

This is also a really tough spot for the Magic as they just played in Toronto last night, earning a surprising victory. That makes them due for a letdown here, especially against a Memphis squad that tends to stomp on teams when they have the rest advantage. In the only other meeting this season, Memphis built a 13-point lead in the first quarter, so I see the Grizzlies bouncing back off their Thursday loss and running away early here.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Iowa St. @ Baylor -12.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I’ll admit to having no clue what’s next for Iowa State throughout the season, as they continually bounce back when you think they’ve hit rock bottom. So after scoring 36 points on Wednesday in perhaps the ugliest performance by a power conference team this year, what can be expected of the Cyclones in such a tough spot? I have to believe that Baylor will keep them down near rock bottom today, as the Bears have plenty of motivation and are starting to come together.

Baylor hasn’t put it on a team by this margin in 3 weeks, but that’s not surprising given their laundry list of injuries. This team appears to have figured it out with their re-shuffled roster, though, earning impressive wins versus Kansas and at Texas the past week. Those wins have put them in position to earn the Big12 regular-season title today, and I think they capitalize in a big way. This is a bad matchup for ISU from a lot of angles, but particularly if they let Baylor’s offense get rolling. I expect it will in such an important game, and that should lead to a Bears blowout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arkansas St. vs. Georgia St. -3.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Let’s jump in the way-back machine for a moment and remember that Georgia State was the consensus favorite in the Sun Belt this season. The Panthers were bringing the most talented roster in the conference but spent all of January ravaged by COVID and injuries.

A rash of canceled games and losses by a depleted roster made everyone forget about the preseason expectations. But then the Panthers got healthy and reeled off 9 wins in their past 10 games, covering the number in 8 of them. The run has been fueled by one of the best defenses in the country, allowing just 59.4 PPG in those 10 games.

The only scheduled meeting with this Arkansas State team was one of the cancelations, but I see a favorable matchup for the Panthers here. The Red Wolves just don’t have the ability to shoot over the top of Georgia State’s excellent defense, allowing the Panthers to dictate this game. Georgia State is still well under the radar, and I see them continuing to make up for lost time here today.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) North Carolina +12 @ Duke (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is easily the most-hyped game of the entire college basketball season, ending the run for Coach K at Cameron Indoor. From a betting perspective, that situation alone instantly perks up the contrarian in me as every square bettor in the country is going to want a piece of the Blue Devils here.

But I just don’t think it’s as simple as Duke being motivated for this spot. They already destroyed UNC by 20 points a month ago, and with all the fanfare around this game, it would be easy for them to take the Tar Heels for granted. That can also lead to Duke coming out a little flat and unfocused, allowing UNC to hang with them early and stick around all game.

UNC is also playing for their postseason lives here, while Duke should be content to secure a victory and move on to the ACC tournament. That has me thinking we’ll see Duke’s bench in this game late, especially since a lot of reserves are seniors and Coach K will want to get them in the game. So whether UNC hangs around all game or has an opportunity to get in the back door, I’ll go against the flow and back them to stay within the number here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 628-509 ATS (+78.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.