Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/04

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/OKC Thunder Over 230 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Wolves have taken the top spot for best record to the over in all games this season, but they’re back on the road tonight where I’m most comfortable betting their overs. With little more than a G-League roster on the other side, this game should feature next to no defense.

Give credit to Oklahoma City for playing hard with a roster full of names I hardly recognize, and scoring enough points to cash the over in 6 straight games. But the Thunder are so reliant on those reserves and call-ups right now that they simply can’t offer much defensive resistance to legitimate NBA offenses. That will again be a problem against a Wolves team that’s clicking offensively, putting up 127 and 129 points respectively against the strong defenses of Cleveland and Golden State.

But what it really comes down to is the kind of style seemingly every Wolves road game is defined by. Their last 8 games on the road have averaged an astounding 249.4 points, and Minnesota is now hitting the over in road games at a 78.1% clip. Look no further than the season series between these teams, who combined for 188 points in Minneapolis and 240 in Oklahoma City. Count me as a believer that the road trend continues here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Phoenix Suns Under 223 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

These teams haven’t played since the day after Thanksgiving, and a lot is different with both rosters for tonight’s rematch. The Suns will continue to be without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker tonight, both of whom were major contributors in the first meeting, as was Kemba Walker who has been shut down for New York. That subtracts a lot of scoring pop from a game that still only got to 215 total points.

The Knicks defense has really fallen off lately, allowing 116.8 PPG over the past 10 games. But I’m not seeing a Suns team missing their starting backcourt taking too much advantage of that, certainly not enough to get to this total. The Knicks play at the 3rd-slowest pace and are also the 3rd-worst shooting team in the league. A Suns team with the 2nd-best defensive rating should be able to hold them down, limiting scoring enough to cash the under here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Buffalo @ Kent St. -2.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I love the spot here for Kent State, and I think we see a motivated Golden Flashes team take care of business in a game with fairly high stakes.

The Flashes can get revenge on Buffalo here, the only team to hand them a loss over their past 14 games. I love home revenge spots in college basketball, especially with the added stakes of Kent State playing for a possible conference crown. It would take a shocking loss by Toledo to do it, but the Flashes also have the incentive of securing the 2-seed in the MAC tournament.

That motivation is huge, especially for a team already brimming with confidence from their 11 game win streak and 9-1 ATS run. Buffalo is fairly hot too, 9-1 straight up the past 10 games. But they’re just 4-6 ATS in those games which all came against teams from the bottom half of the MAC standings, and they were snapped back to reality by Tuesday’s 16-point home loss to Toledo. I just think the Bulls are walking into a buzz saw here, and I see a convincing Kent State win coming.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego vs. Portland -1 (-110): 10:30 PM CT on WCC Network

I know it’s a conference tournament environment on a neutral floor, but this line makes absolutely no sense. Did somebody miss the way Portland has finished this season, winning 5 of 6 and actually posting a 10-4 ATS record in WCC play? This team is much better than they’re getting credit for, with an offense that has come alive down the stretch. San Diego should know full well, as they had 92 points put on them by Portland in a 32-point loss just two weeks ago.

Sure, the Toreros managed a win over the Pilots early in the WCC season, but they needed overtime to do it in a game that was played well before Portland put things together. Portland’s improved offense and up-tempo style were the difference in the second meeting and will be again tonight as San Diego just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. These teams are much farther apart than a single point, even in this setting, so I’ll back the Pilots to continue their strong play.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Morehead St. +4.5 vs. Belmont (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPNU

I’ve lost faith in Belmont, and that’s what this really boils down to. The preseason hype for this team was incredible, and believable given that they were returning the most scoring from last season of any team in the country. But it just hasn’t fully materialized this year, and as a result, they’ve struggled with the other top teams in the Ohio Valley. Getting blown out twice by an excellent Murray State team is one thing, but the Bruins have also had their issues with this Morehead State squad.

These teams split the season series, but Morehead led the second game until the final moments and probably should have earned the season sweep. I think they atone for that last-second loss tonight, as they’re the exact kind of team Belmont struggles with. The superior athleticism of the Eagles caused problems for Belmont in both games, and matchup nightmare Johni Broome has been a major issue for Belmont the past two seasons. So while I think the Eagles win this outright, I’ll take the points given the close games they’ve played this season.

Tiny Nick is 625-508 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.