Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
It’s worth questioning how long the honeymoon phase will last between new teammates Joel Embiid and James Harden. After all, we have seen it flame out for Harden after a couple of games with a new team before. But with two very impressive performances so far, I’m a believer that they have at least one more in them, especially with a chance to show off on national TV. And against a Knicks team they just beat by 16 on Sunday and is in a complete tailspin.
What an abysmal 6-week stretch for New York, as they’ve gone 3-15 straight up and 5-13 ATS their past 18 games. The defense has fallen off a cliff, allowing 119.1 PPG over the past 10 games, and now has to face the Embiid/Harden pairing that has looked unstoppable. I really love the situational spot here for Philly, facing a dejected team while looking to make a statement, so I’ll lay the points here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma City Thunder/Denver Nuggets Over 226 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude Sports
This is a case where the overall perception and metrics of Oklahoma City are holding the total down. But with their recent stretch of games combined with the high-scoring ways of the Nuggets, we should get an over on a discounted total.
The Thunder certainly aren’t known for their offense, ranking dead last in shooting percentage and offensive rating. But that hasn’t stopped them from cashing 5 straight overs in games that averaged 231.8 points in regulation. It has stopped the books from hanging a high enough total here though, especially with Denver also involved.
The Nuggets have really stepped it up offensively, particularly at home where their past 11 games have averaged 234.5 points as a result. They’re now one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, and that should pad scoring with the faster pace and poor defense OKC has shown recently. With the added element of playing at elevation, I see more offense than defense here to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Middle Tennessee -1.5 @ Charlotte (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The best ATS record, best cover percentage, and 2nd-best plus/minus against the number in the whole country. That’s Middle Tennessee’s betting resume, so why wouldn’t you back them here at such a short number? The Blue Raiders just keep getting it done, winners in 13 of their past 14 games with 11 covers in that stretch. That also includes a 15-point win over this Charlotte team that they should be able to handle again today.
The 49ers are just an average team in Conference USA, handling the teams below them in the standings but 0-7 straight up and ATS when facing the teams above them. Their 319th-rated defense will be their undoing again today, just like it was in the first meeting when they allowed MTU to shoot the lights out. I see a mismatch here with a Middle Tennessee squad on the rise, so I’ll back them again to keep the hot streak rolling.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) George Mason @ Davidson -7 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a big spot for Davidson, as the Wildcats have an opportunity to lock up the Atlantic 10 regular-season title with a win tonight. If their recent form is any indication, they should roll over this highly inconsistent George Mason team.
Davidson has been lighting it up offensively all season long as the country’s 9th-best team in offensive efficiency, as well as 7th in true shooting percentage. Until recently, the defense has been what lags behind, but their past 4 games have seen the Wildcats post the top defensive efficiency mark in the country. Combining that level of defense with their offense is a scary proposition, and has resulted in 4 double-digit wins by an average 19.3 point margin.
George Mason is certainly a tougher test as the Patriots only have one A10 loss by this margin on the whole season. But with Foster Loyer potentially returning tonight, a conference crown within reach, and the team playing this well at both ends, I’ll back Davidson here for the convincing win.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 622-503 ATS (+79.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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