Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/01

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks -5 @ Los Angeles Lakers (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

It was an extremely impressive February for Luka Doncic, as his 34.7 PPG boosted the Mavericks to a strong month as well. With the calendar turning to March, there’s little reason to think it won’t continue against the spiraling Lakers.

The 8-2 ATS run for Dallas has been punctuated on their current road trip with wins over the top teams from both conferences. That should make tonight’s opponent fairly easy by comparison, with the Lakers circling the drain after Sunday’s embarrassing loss. Add in injuries up and down the roster including the absence of Anthony Davis, and the Lakers should continue to struggle against a hot Mavericks team.

LeBron James simply can’t overcome the lack of offensive production from the rest of the team, especially against a Dallas defense that’s up to 5th in efficiency. I don’t anticipate LA having an answer for Doncic tonight either, so he should continue to carry this team to another win and cover.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Stetson/Central Arkansas Over 151 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Two completely inept defenses get together here for a conference tournament elimination scenario. When you have a situation like that – especially in a game expected to be close like this one – I love looking to the over. Typically you get a more free-flowing style throughout the game, capped off by an extended and irrational foul game towards the end. These teams already played to that style in the first meeting this season, getting to 154 points in the process.

Stetson is also a “pace-taker” team, willing to play in the style dictated by their opponent. That’s led them to go 5-2 over this total against the faster-paced teams in the ASUN, and Central Arkansas is the fastest as they rank 14th in the country in pace. With these teams 259th and 341st in defensive rating, I see the elimination style padding what should already be a high-scoring affair.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke -8 First Half @ Pittsburgh (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ACC Network

The final scores of Pittsburgh games are hiding the trend of them really stumbling out of the gate, particularly at home. The Panthers have failed to hold a halftime lead in each of their last 6 home games, losing by an average 11.5 point margin. And that’s come against a fairly mediocre list of opponents, none of whom have the firepower that Duke is bringing tonight.

The Blue Devils have been coming out hot in the first half lately by comparison. Their past 8 games overall have seen them lead by this margin or more 6 times, with the only 2 outliers against a Virginia team that gives them trouble. They should be able to carve up the nation’s 280th-rated defense with ease and pull away from the 299th-rated offense. Expect Duke to come out strong here against an inferior opponent that just can’t get it together early on in games.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Purdue @ Wisconsin +3 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

It’s really tough to win on the road in the Big 10, especially when you’re visiting the first-place team that’s already beaten you this season. That’s the task in front of Purdue here, and I’m not willing to trust a team that’s struggled so much on the road.

The Boilermakers have the nation’s most efficient offense, but it takes a big step back away from home. Combine that with their defense that’s 165th in efficiency (which allows 1.030 points per possession on the road), and you have the reason why this extremely talented team has had their biggest struggles as the visitor this season. Add in the fact that Wisconsin is the only team to beat them at home this season and you have a live underdog in this game.

I’m not going to back a Purdue team that’s just 2-5-1 ATS as a road favorite this season, especially with the home environment the Kohl Center creates. This game can effectively determine the regular-season conference champion, so in what should be a very tight game I’ll take 3 points with the home team.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Toledo/Buffalo Over 159.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t have the best of luck with totals that are hung in this range, but the matchup here definitely justifies such a big number. These teams play the style necessary to get to this total, as Buffalo is 22nd and Toledo 66th in pace. And with both being top-35 in offensive rating, those extra possessions add up on the scoreboard quickly. Buffalo also helps themselves to extra scoring opportunities by being 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding.

These teams have also combined for 13 conference games that went over this total, including the first meeting that snuck over at 161 total points. The shooting wasn’t particularly great in that game either, especially from long range, so any improvement is likely to boost scoring for this rematch. Both teams will also be playing for conference tournament seeding here, so that should create a tighter game with extra points down the stretch. But if both offenses are clicking we should see plenty of scoring before it even gets to that point so I’m leaning to the over here.

NCAA Basketball Cincinnati @ Houston -14 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a big number, and I worry a little about Houston being in a let-down spot after their win on Sunday secured the AAC title. But I watched most of that win over SMU and saw a Cougars team firing on all cylinders right now. By comparison, this Cincinnati team has really fallen off and may have hit rock bottom with a home loss to awful South Florida on Saturday. The Bearcats are just 3-7 straight up and 2-8 ATS their past 10 games, are 2-6-1 ATS on the road, and already lost to Houston by 22 this season.

Houston is also in a position where big wins matter for seeding purposes in the NCAA tournament, a fact that coach Kelvin Sampson is well aware of. And the Cougars have shown no hesitation to blow teams out this season, already owning 8 wins by at least this margin in conference play. If they can stay focused and not let up after Sunday’s big win, Houston should find it easy to rack up another one here tonight.

Tiny Nick is 620-502 ATS (+79.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.