Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/8

Locks

NBA - Wolves/Mavs Over 224 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Fox Sports North

When I saw this number come out at 222 I was ready to take the over whether Karl-Anthony Towns was playing or not. The Dallas Mavericks have averaged 255.6 points per game in their last three — that’s ridiculous and not by chance. They are very fast-paced and play awful defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, on the other hand, are just not very competitive on defense. If Towns is back it will be huge and will run up this total, but even if he’s out I expect these two defenses to continue to allow easy buckets en route to a game in the 230s or above.

This one opened at 222 and seems to be going up so get it early.

NCAA Basketball - Coppin St./Norfolk St. Over 151.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This number is a little low given we have plenty of head-to-head and overall data showing how high-scoring the games are for these teams. The Eagles and Spartans have already played three times this season, with all three going over this total and an average total score of 155.3 points.

Neither team has dipped below this total in a single one of their 17 combined conference games. It has everything to do with the style of play for Coppin State — they play at the second-fastest pace in the country and allow the 18th most points. While Norfolk State doesn’t necessarily light it up offensively, their average of 1.011 points per possession and 1.145 over their last three games is more than enough to exploit that terrible defense and get over this number.

NBA - Kristaps Porzingis Over 20.5 Points (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Fox Sports North

Minnesota has been really bad against opposing bigs this year, especially when KAT is out. Towns is doubtful again tonight, and even if he plays I trust Porzingis to top this total after eclipsing it in two of his last three outings, especially against this Wolves defense.

Degenerates 

NCAA Basketball - San Jose St. @ San Diego St. -27.5 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on FS1

How do you get a spread of 27.5 points in a conference game? You have the team that is 32nd in defensive efficiency host the team who is 328th in offensive efficiency. Or you could have the team that is 342nd in defensive efficiency visit the team that is 33rd in offensive efficiency.

Any way you look at it this is a massive metrics mismatch, and how both teams have been trending gives even more justification to taking the Aztecs here. San Jose’s three straight wins over the bottom two teams in the MWC mask their five losses by 27 points or more in six games against the three league leaders.

Given that San Diego State’s last four games have been blowouts by an average of 31.5 points, there’s no way I’m backing one of the worst teams in the country against them. Looking ahead I expected this spread to be 30 or more, so I’ll roll with the Aztecs in another lopsided affair.

Tiny Nick is 148-88 ATS (+55.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he's confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.