Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/6

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Detroit Pistons Over 230 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North

On the season as a whole, Minnesota has not been a team you want to bet an over with when they’re at home. Even though they’re the second-best over team in the league, home games are just 11-14 to the over. But the Wolves are doing something important lately at home which is put it on bad and shorthanded teams. Their last four home games have been against that kind of opponent, and they’re scoring 127.8 points with the games averaging 239 points.

They weren’t afraid to put it on the Pistons in Detroit on Thursday, and that shouldn’t change today. The Pistons have been pretty awful on the road lately as well, allowing an average of 121.4 points in their last eight games. They were able to manage plenty of offense against Minnesota in the previous meeting, and should be able to contribute enough to get today’s game over the total as well.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavericks Over 220.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Dallas Mavericks are the worst over team in the league, especially at home with a ridiculous 76.9% of those games hitting the under. So why take an over in this game? Well, first, it’s the Hawks and their 27th-rated defense that gets even worse on the road. Secondly, we’re starting to see some mean reversion from Dallas, as five of their past six games have hit the over.

This is also a revenge spot for Dallas, as their season started with a 26-point blowout loss in Atlanta. The careers of Luka Doncic and Trae Young will always be linked, so I’m sure Doncic and the Mavs would love to hang a big number on the Hawks on national TV today. Atlanta’s road games have been a solid over bet this season, and eight of their past 12 overall have gone over this total. With the number lowered due to the Dallas trends, I’ll go a little contrarian here and look to the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Loyola Chicago @ Missouri St +1.5 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I really think the wrong team is favored here, as Missouri State is much better than they’ve gotten credit for. The Bears have done a lot of damage in the MVC this season, including knocking off Loyola in Chicago two weeks ago. That game was nowhere near as close as the 10-point final margin, with Bears star guard Isiaih Mosley posting his second 40-point game of the season.

Loyola is still trading on their Final Four history, and just doesn’t have the same shooters or defense this year. Mosley is a matchup nightmare for them, and should be ready to go off again in this home hype spot. The market seems to think Loyola exacts their revenge here, but I just don’t see it. This is a massive game for the Bears program, especially with ESPN in the building, so I see them getting it done here at home.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marist @ St Peter’s -4 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams are simply headed in opposite directions, and I don’t see it stopping here. A couple of close road losses is all that separates St Peter’s and a nine-game winning streak, and the Peacocks are also on a 9-1 ATS run. That includes a seven-point win at Marist just 10 days ago, with a script that I see playing out again here.

St Peter’s is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country and certainly in the MAAC, which they showed by lighting it up from deep in the first meeting. They’ve been on fire ever since that game too, and should keep it up against a Marist defense that’s getting torched on the road this season. The Red Foxes just haven’t lived up to preseason expectations, and are in the middle of 1-6 ATS run. This is a short number for a team that’s been excellent at home, and I trust them to get it done again here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 570-456 ATS (+77.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.