Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/4

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets Over 216.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Cleveland might be the best scoring defense in the NBA, but that fact is holding this total down against a team they tend to get into shootouts with. The Hornets and Cavs have already played twice this season, averaging 229 points in those games. Both were high-possession games, one of the biggest drivers of NBA overs, and that should continue tonight.

Yes, Cleveland can defend as well as any team in the league, but their defense away from home has been a different story. The Cavs are allowing a few more PPG on the road along with decreased defensive efficiency, and their past 5 road games are averaging 218.4 points. Charlotte isn’t afraid to get into a shootout with anyone, with their past 5 games overall averaging 235.6 points. Their bad defense and the style it creates between these teams should make for another over tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Houston Rockets/San Antonio Spurs Over 236 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

This is a massive total, but when the worst defensive team in the league is involved, I have to think it will result in an over. Dead last is where Houston finds themselves in points allowed and defensive efficiency, and another meeting with San Antonio probably won’t help them improve. Both meetings this season have gone over this total, averaging 245 points. It’s with good reason as the Rockets are the fastest-paced team in the NBA and the Spurs 5th.

That’s a recipe for a shootout, but the only consideration here is the injury report. With several key contributors for San Antonio questionable, their offense might not be its usual self as was the case last night. Be sure to check the status of players like Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott, and Jakob Poeltl before getting too invested. But with the Spurs on a back-to-back and defense already optional, this should be another high-scoring meeting.

Degenerates

NBA Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers Over 229.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago

Hello Pacers of last season, I’ve missed you. One of last year’s best over teams is certainly trending that way again, with 8 of their past 10 hitting the over while averaging 239 PPG in that stretch. With so many Indiana starters hobbled the reserves have been playing little to no defense, and a high-scoring Bulls team should take advantage here.

The Bulls have been getting into plenty of shootouts themselves, averaging 237.3 PPG since Zach LaVine returned from injury. They’re also in a difficult spot here, coming off an overtime game in Toronto last night and having to face a Pacers team inclined to get into a track meet. These teams haven’t met since Indiana began this stretch of defensive futility, so I see them getting up and down the floor for plenty of points tonight.

Tiny Nick is 565-450 ATS (+77.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.