Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/27

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz -1 @ Phoenix Suns (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC

I was waiting for a sign that I was on the right side of this pick-em line and finally got it. The Suns were holding as a 1 point favorite until the line finally flipped to Utah as the favorite. That move through zero confirms that the smart money agrees that the Suns just aren’t the Suns without Chris Paul in the lineup. Phoenix got big contributions from CP3 in the first two meetings with Utah this season, both single-digit wins.

But the Jazz were not the Jazz for those previous meetings, missing Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in both games. They’re back today for a far healthier Utah club than the Suns are used to seeing, and should be able to avenge those previous losses. The absence of Paul is already being felt in Phoenix as they got blown out at home against the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. I just don’t trust the Suns without him, so I’ll back the healthy and revenge-minded Jazz here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -7.5 @ Indiana Pacers (-110): 4:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

There’s an old saying about how defense travels, and Boston is quickly becoming the best defensive team in the league. The Celtics are up to 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating, and I see that carrying them here today. It’s easy to guard a team who has given up too, which Indiana appears to have done with only 5 wins in their past 20 games. The 15 losses in that stretch have come by an average 12.5-point margin and include a 19-point home loss to these Celtics.

In case you haven’t heard, Boston is on an absolute tear, winners of 13 of their past 15 games. They’ve also won 8 of their past 9 road games, with each win by more than today’s spread. That success has made them 11-5 ATS as a road favorite, with the best margin of victory and ATS plus/minus in the league for road favorites. They should have a big advantage over the new-look and shorthanded Pacers today who are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games. Eventually, Boston will get priced too high in this run they’re on, but it’s not today as they should roll.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Ohio St. -4 @ Maryland (-110): 3:00 PM CT on CBS

This line feels a little too good to be true, especially since the first meeting was a 15-point Buckeye win that wasn’t as close as that score would indicate. But the season is over for Maryland as the Terrapins will be playing out the string here. Compare that to Ohio State which has significant seeding considerations in the Big 10 tournament to play for, and the motivation angle heavily favors the visitor here.

And the Buckeyes are a little under the radar lately with plenty of attention on the other top schools in the conference. But their 8-2 ATS run should not be ignored, and neither should the play of blossoming star Malaki Branham who has dropped 80 points over the past 3 games. That’s been giving OSU an inside-outside scoring balance which a weak Maryland offense just can’t trade shots with. So while the line seems a little sketchy, I have to trust the more talented and motivated Buckeyes here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Montana St./Montana Over 134.5 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This total is being held down by the result of the previous meeting this season, a game that only saw 125 total points. But that game was on pace to hit the over until shooting fell off a cliff in the second half. Adjusting this total down from that game’s number of 137 is not factoring in how these teams have been playing recently.

That’s particularly the case with Montana, whose defense has not looked good, allowing 80-plus points in 4 of their past 7 games. Those games have averaged 151.9 points as a result, and gone 7-0 to the over. The Grizzlies have also played 7 Big Sky teams twice this season, and 6 of the rematches have seen a scoring increase.

Montana State has also been in higher-scoring games recently, with the 10 games since playing Montana averaging 144.9 points. The Bobcats are also 9-5 to the over on the road, and their 9 conference road games have averaged 148.7 points. These teams also have trouble with fouls, 308th and 335th in fouls per game while also being excellent from the line. In what should be a close game, those easy points will be a big factor in getting this over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 617-499 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.