Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors -2.5 @ Charlotte Hornets (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Judging by how these squads entered the All-Star break this one might not be close. That vacation can do strange things to teams, but these two appear to be on completely opposite trajectories right now. Toronto has won and covered 8 of their past 10 games, including a convincing win in Charlotte just over two weeks ago. That’s part of a brutal slide for the Hornets, who have just one win and two covers this entire month.
The Raptors just know how to beat this team too, with wins by 12 and 15 points in the two previous meetings this season. Charlotte’s high-flying offense really struggles against Toronto’s defense, being held under their season scoring average in both meetings. It also looks like Fred VanVleet will play tonight, making it even easier for the Raps to exploit the porous Hornets defense. I think Toronto gets the season sweep here against a Charlotte team headed in the wrong direction.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks +6 @ Utah Jazz (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
This line is designed to make you fear a healthy Jazz team that has a habit of blowing teams out at home. But Utah really isn’t that scary at home this season, and Dallas might actually be playing the better basketball.
The Jazz have a serious reputation as a home-floor bully, but it’s not all that deserved with just a 13-18 ATS record in Salt Lake City. And the Mavericks come into this game on a 6-1 straight up and ATS run with Luka Doncic absolutely on fire. Doncic actually missed the first meeting between these teams on Christmas Day, a game that Dallas managed to keep inside tonight’s number without him.
The Mavericks seem to be clicking after their trade deadline moves, and a slower style with excellent defense makes them a good bet when catching this many points. If Doncic can stay hot, this should be a tight game where I’d much rather be catching two full possessions, so I’ll back the Mavs here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Akron @ Ohio -7.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I hope Akron enjoyed their last four games because it’s about to get real for the Zips tonight. The schedule couldn’t have been any softer for Akron, playing the bottom four teams in the MAC standings in succession. The fact that they came out of that stretch just 2-2 both straight up and ATS is more than a little shocking. As will be the shock to their system visiting an Ohio team that’s simply unstoppable against most of the conference.
Besides their nemesis Toledo and a red-hot Kent State team, the Bobcats just demolish everyone in the MAC. They’re now 13-0 against the other 9 teams, winning by an average 15.2 point margin. Ohio has also been gifted new life in the conference title race but can’t afford any slip-ups. That should have them motivated here to take care of business and hand out another beatdown. The Bobcats aren’t often laying single digits at home, so I’ll back them here at what seems like a discounted price.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Texas State @ Troy (ML +115): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s that time of year already, with the Sun Belt wrapping up regular season play tonight. But Texas State really doesn’t have anything to play for in this one, as they clinched the regular-season title with their win on Wednesday night. That puts the Bobcats in a flat spot here and allows Troy to build on a strong season to create momentum into the conference tournament.
That strong season for the Trojans includes a 15-point dismantling of Texas State in San Marcos to open conference play. Troy used their best advantage in that game to perfection, pounding it inside against the nation’s 20th-shortest roster. This is also a big home hype spot for Troy with ESPN making a rare appearance. Texas State hasn’t been great on the road this season either, so with Troy already knowing how to beat them, I’ll back the Trojans for the season sweep.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 613-491 ATS (+79.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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