Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Wake Forest -3 @ Clemson (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
Don’t let the supposed home-court advantage fool you here, as Clemson is a seriously wounded team right now. This line implies the typical Littlejohn Coliseum advantage for the Tigers, but without Hunter Tyson and potentially star PJ Hall this team is in serious trouble. Missing those key pieces means the big and athletic Wake Forest frontcourt should dominate here, especially with the Tigers already having trouble defending the interior this season.
The Clemson defense of years past is long gone, all the way down to 256th in defensive rating, and have to contend with one of the best shooting teams in the country. A deep and talented Wake squad will be able to press their advantage against this shorthanded Tigers team to win comfortably. The Demon Deacons are 7-2 ATS on the road this season, so they should be unfazed by Clemson’s environment and cover this short number.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Central Arkansas/North Alabama Over 146.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s not every day you see a total in a Central Arkansas game this low. The nation’s most generous defense has caused 12 of their 14 ASUN games to go over this total, and I don’t see anything different about tonight. North Alabama does not have much of an offense, but that doesn’t matter much against UCA, especially with the Lions also playing at a fairly fast pace.
These teams are also pretty evenly matched, evidenced by their meeting last month that finished 89-88 in overtime. That game had a total that was 6 points higher than tonight’s number, making this a big discount in my eyes. Opponent also matters in the ASUN with a lot of contrasting styles, and North Alabama is 6-1 over this total against the teams known for fast pace and weak defense. Sharp money seems to love the over here and I do too.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Tulsa +10.5 @ SMU (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Despite how good SMU has looked recently, this is a classic sandwich spot for the Mustangs. A fairly weak Tulsa team is coming to town for a mid-week game that follows SMU’s big upset win over Memphis on Sunday. It also precedes an SMU visit to Houston this weekend for a game that will likely decide first place in the AAC.
Given that the Mustangs have already beaten Tulsa this season (by only 5 points), it would not surprise me at all for them to overlook the Golden Hurricane here for the typical sandwich spot effect. Even though Tulsa is just 1-3 in their past 4 road games, they’ve kept all 3 losses inside this spread. On purely a talent basis, SMU can run Tulsa out of the gym, but the situational handicap is far more impactful here so I’ll take the points.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Tulsa First Half +6 (-110)
In a sandwich spot like this, it’s often beneficial to take the underdog in the first half, especially when the number is significantly more than 50% of the full game spread. That’s in case the big favorite wakes up at halftime and decides to pour it on. I’ll hedge against that possibility here and hope to double-dip in the end.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Ole Miss @ Auburn -15.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on SEC Network
Let’s do a quick review of the extremely complex decision tree regarding betting on Auburn. Is Auburn playing at home? If yes, bet on Auburn. The Tigers are now 13-1 ATS in their home games, the second-most home ATS wins and second-best cover rate in the country. That incredibly strong trend in and of itself is enough for me to keep backing Auburn, but this game also sets up really well for them.
The home/road Jekyll and Hyde act that defines Auburn this season was on full display in their loss at Florida over the weekend. But that creates a bounce-back spot for the Tigers here, who need a statement win to maintain their positioning for March. Ole Miss has been shorthanded recently, and a team that’s 234th in offensive rating just won’t keep up if Auburn decides to dial it to 11 in this one. Auburn is beating unranked opponents at home by an average 17.2 point margin since conference play started, so instead of overthinking this one, I’ll lay the points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 608-485 ATS (+81.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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