Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/20

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue-Fort Wayne -4 @ Milwaukee (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m running it back with the Mastodons here after they treated me well on Friday night. They get a relatively similar opponent today in Milwaukee, albeit a much more inconsistent squad.

That inconsistency stems from potential lottery pick Patrick Baldwin Jr. being in and out of the lineup for the Panthers, so with him out today, I’m happy to back Fort Wayne here. This is another of the bottom-half Horizon opponents that Fort Wayne has shown such dominance against, and they’ve already beaten the Panthers by 10 earlier this month in a game where Baldwin played. The Mastodons shot well below their average from deep in that game but should do much better today without Baldwin’s length on the perimeter to bother their excellent shooters.

Milwaukee is also just not good in the underdog role, only 5-10 ATS on the season. By comparison, Fort Wayne takes care of business when they’re supposed to, now 10-4 ATS as a favorite. Given the trajectory of these teams, I thought this number should be closer to 6 or 7 points, so I’ll lay it with the Mastodons again today.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Quinnipiac/Marist Over 143.5 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN3

When these teams met a few weeks ago it was with a total lined at 139.5 and they put up 181 points. That was by far the highest-scoring game for either team this season so you could consider it something of an outlier, especially with how hot both teams were from deep. But an adjustment of only 4 points to today’s total doesn’t seem like enough, so I’m willing to take another shot here.

The situational trends certainly support it, with Quinnipiac road games going 7-3 to the over, while Marist home games are 8-3 to the over. To be fair, Marist is not used to seeing totals this high in those games. But Quinnipiac’s record is certainly explainable given they’re allowing 75.1 PPG in conference road games. That weak Bobcats defense should allow Marist to get revenge for that earlier loss, and hopefully create another high-scoring 3-point contest in the process.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Memphis @ SMU +3 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN

It is very important to monitor the status of Mustangs guard Kendric Davis for this one as his ankle injury makes him a game-time decision. But overall this just feels like there’s a little too much love for the sudden turnaround by Memphis lately.

Yes, the Tigers and Penny Hardaway should be commended for pulling the team out of a tailspin. But their last loss came to this very SMU team, and it was not terribly close. For Memphis to lose that game by 8 as a 6-point home favorite, then still lay 3 points on the road doesn’t seem right to me. That’s especially true given that this is a massive home hype spot for the Mustangs, who are in need of a bounce back after losing at Temple this week. Add in that Memphis is just 1-6 ATS when laying points on the road, and SMU becomes even more attractive here.

But this is a situation that sets up extremely well for SMU, a team that is undefeated at home and needs to boost its tournament resume. With 3 points of insurance, I’ll back the home dog here in what should be a tight game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 604-481 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.