Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/19

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UMKC/North Dakota St. Over 137 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN3

Put the right team(s) on the floor and the high-scoring Summit League rarely disappoints, especially at such a gettable total here. These are certainly two of those teams, as Kansas City has really picked up the pace in league play and enters this game with the 27th-best shooting percentage in the country. That’s made the Kangaroos 10-4-1 over this total in league play, including 157 points the last time they saw NDSU.

The Bison’s reputation as a defensive and lower-scoring team seems to be holding this number down, but that simply hasn’t been the case this season. They’re just 172nd in defensive rating, causing their conference games to go 12-4 over today’s total. NDSU has excellent scoring ability when they need/want it, and they will today in a revenge spot against UMKC’s sped-up style. This is one of the lower totals you’ll see in this conference, so I’m pouncing on the over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St. Thomas @ South Dakota St. -19 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN3

I’m staying in the Summit League here and going back to the well with South Dakota State, because why not? I highlighted all the reasons why you should back them at a long number on Thursday, and they dismantled Western Illinois by 25 in a game that was never that close.

This spot worries me a little as a potential look-ahead to Oral Roberts on Thursday, but you also have to consider the level of opponent here. Poor St. Thomas is really feeling the D1 pain right now, having lost 11 straight and only covering once in that stretch. Their past 5 road games have seen 4 losses by at least this number and a -20.4 average margin. And none of those were against a team as potent as SDSU, who already beat them by 15 in Minneapolis.

This is just too much of a mismatch, with one of the best offenses in the country about to eviscerate the nation’s 2nd-worst team in defensive efficiency. I was willing to lay up to 25 with SDSU when I saw this on the schedule, so back the Jacks to roll again today.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Tennessee @ Arkansas -2 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

This game to me is mostly about fading Tennessee off what was a huge win over Kentucky on Tuesday night. The come-down off that victory, plus travel to a very hostile environment where they haven’t won since 2009, sets up as a major flat spot for the Volunteers.

Meanwhile, everyone seems to have forgotten about Arkansas after a rough stretch where they dropped 5 of 6 games. But this team is legit, they’re on a 10-1 ATS run, and are 1 point short at Alabama of being on a 12-game winning streak. The Razorbacks have plenty of scoring talent to send at the strong Tennessee defense, plus the length and athleticism to bother the Vols at every position. They have the highest-rated defense in SEC league play, and an absolutely raucous crowd backing them in this hype spot.

I also just don’t trust Tennessee on the road against quality teams, going 0-3 when visiting ranked SEC opponents. A strong showing in their win over Kentucky just has the Vols overvalued, but the smart money knew what to do with this line as they moved it through zero right away. I see a surprisingly comfortable win for the home Hogs here, so lay the points.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Eastern Kentucky/Central Arkansas Over 162 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN+

If you’re looking for defense, you’re in the wrong place. What you’ve found instead is an Eastern Kentucky team that’s 320th in points allowed, and a Central Arkansas squad that’s dead last. Both teams should continue that today in what will be a high-paced game where defense is optional.

These teams are both top-15 in possessions per game, and while they don’t necessarily shoot it well, the pure volume of shots will be the deciding factor here. That’s especially true for Eastern Kentucky, a team that takes the 4th-most shots from long range and today faces the 249th three-point percentage defense. This is simply a game that both teams are going to love being allowed to play their preferred style, and that should carry it over the massive total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Washington/UCLA Over 140.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on FS1

It’s been a tough February for UCLA, getting swept in shocking fashion at the Arizona schools and losing the cross-town rivalry with USC a week later. I really get the sense the Bruins want to put it on someone – so do the oddsmakers – and that’s going to create a very high-scoring affair against a victim like Washington.

The Huskies are having trouble stopping anything right now, and that’s led to 6 straight games going over the total. UCLA is better defensively than offensively, but they’ve shown the tendency to light up the bad Pac-12 defenses. They’ll get whatever they want in this game, but so will the unstoppable Terrell Brown Jr. for Washington, especially in garbage time. But a much-anticipated offensive eruption for the Bruins should be the driving force in getting this game over a fairly low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Long Beach St. +5 @ UC-Santa Barbara (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Either I’m missing something or the smart money is missing something because I’m going directly against them in this one. Oddsmakers opened this game at a 3 point spread, and it’s been steamed here. It makes some sense from an analytical standpoint, as Santa Barbara is the team with a superior metrics profile. But I see Long Beach as the team playing clearly the best basketball in the Big West, highlighted by their 11 game win and cover streak.

Beach coach Dan Monson has this team firing on all cylinders right now, with decisive wins over the other conference challengers and in tough spots as well. Plus this 11 game run started with a 7-point win over these Gauchos. I just fully believe Long Beach is the better team here, far more battle-tested and proven in the non-conference and Big West. Getting this many points with one of the hottest teams in the country seems like a bargain, so I’ll back the Beach here.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Hawaii/UC Irvine Under 127 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The under trends in this game are just staggering, so it’s really the only play for me here. Irvine is the best under bet in the country with 82.4% of their games going under the total, and the 2nd-best plus/minus to the under as well. Not far behind is Hawaii, the 10th-best under bet with 68.4% of their games cashing the under.

Also incredible to note is that every Irvine home game has gone under, while every Hawaii road game has gone under as well. These teams hit 128 points on the island just over a month ago, so this number would seem fair from that standpoint. But the trends are impossible to ignore, these teams are 271st and 315th in pace, and Irvine has the 8th-rated defense in the country. This should be a slog, so take the under.

Tiny Nick is 602-478 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.