Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ohio @ Kent St -1 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
My goodness Kent State, where has this come from? The Golden Flashes are on an absolute tear, winners of 7 straight and on a 9-1 ATS run. That was punctuated by consecutive road wins over two top MAC teams, including running conference favorite Toledo off their own floor this week.
I can’t really explain it because this team doesn’t do much particularly well, but their confidence and swagger are tough to ignore. It doesn’t get easier tonight against a talented Ohio team that’s been running over pretty much everyone in the MAC lately and could shape up as a flat spot for Kent State off those road wins. But I just have to roll with the hot team in this one, especially since the first matchup was tight and came before Kent State got on this run.
The number has also refused to move towards Ohio here despite the Bobcats having the superior profile, a big hint of where the smart money is headed. Kent State is a fun team to watch right now and this should be a great game, so I’ll trust them to keep the momentum going at this short price.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Pennsylvania/Yale Over 144 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
On a day with a short slate, we’d be remiss not to talk about smart-kid basketball, especially with first place in the Ivy up for grabs. Plus this game will showcase the Ivy’s best player in Penn guard Jordan Dingle, one of the better mid-major scorers in the country. Behind Dingle, the Quakers are averaging 75.7 PPG in conference play, but a defense that’s just 269th in efficiency can force them into some high-scoring games.
The first meeting between these teams landed right on 144 points, but it was held down due to terrible 3-point shooting and uncharacteristically poor free-throw shooting by Yale. Any improvement in those categories should boost scoring in this rematch. The Bulldogs are also not afraid to turn up the scoring against the poor defenses of the Ivy, especially at home where they’re scoring 77.3 PPG. This should be a tight matchup given the stakes, and with plenty of scoring punch on both teams, I see them getting this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue-FW -5 @ UW-Green Bay (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a play where I just have to punch back against an overreaction on the number, especially with a solid Fort Wayne team gaining momentum. The Mastodons have been excellent in the Horizon League against all but the top couple teams and finally broke through on Monday against front-runner Cleveland State.
That confidence should carry them here against a team they’re already used to beating. They took down Green Bay two weeks ago by 16 points, easily covering the 9.5 point spread. For that line to essentially be cut in half here is the overreaction I’m talking about, especially with home court not mattering much in this situation.
The Mastodons are undefeated against the teams below them in the conference standings, winning those games by an average 8.8 point margin. The Phoenix meanwhile have lost 8 straight, only keeping one of those within tonight’s spread, and have a -7.4 average margin in conference games. I just don’t see their 319th-rated offense keeping up with a Fort Wayne team that can get hot from deep, so this should be an easy win and cover for the Mastodons.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 599-478 ATS (+80.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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