Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/15

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Villanova @ Providence +4 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Unlike most teams, Providence has come out of a mid-season COVID pause on absolute fire with 7 straight wins. They should be up for this game in a big way and have a chance to win it outright.

Looking at this game from a Villanova standpoint, I see a trap line based on name recognition, and I’m not falling into it. The Wildcats aren’t quite what they used to be, or what they were expected to be this season, especially on the road with a 3-6-1 ATS record. Collin Gillespie is not at full strength either with an ankle issue, and that has a major impact on this team at both ends of the floor.

But mostly it’s just smart to be a Providence backer this season, especially when they’re catching points. In their other 7 games as an underdog this season, the Friars have won every single game straight up. There is a KenPom metric that measures luck factor, and Providence tops that list. So with them catching points again, I’ll count on the charmed season to continue here.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Butler +4 @ DePaul (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1

This game is going to be highly dependent on the status of DePaul’s best player Javon Freeman-Liberty, who is listed as a game-time decision. Without him in the lineup, this DePaul team really struggles to score and will have a tough time against this improving Butler squad. The Bulldogs finally broke through after 3 straight losses by a combined 7 points, and they have the talent advantage here.

I’m also seeing too much of a swing in DePaul’s valuation here, regardless of any player’s injury status. The Blue Demons have spent their past 10 games as an average 8.5 point underdog, so to now be laying more than a possession is too big of a move. I’ll be keeping an eye on Freeman-Liberty’s status because of how important he is, but I see an under-the-radar Butler team performing much better than expected here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State @ TCU -3.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

The house of cards that was the early-season success for Iowa State has come crashing down, leaving them tied for last in the Big 12 standings. Meanwhile, TCU is squarely in the bubble conversation and can’t afford anything less than a convincing win, which I think they get here.

My Cyclones have been tough to predict this season, but I watched the majority of the first game between these teams and did not think ISU matched up well. TCU definitely has the athleticism and interior presence that the Clones are lacking. And while neither team is going to light up the scoreboard, ISU has a unique ability to go completely ice cold like they did in the first meeting and have done in February.

Only 23 teams in the country have a worse effective field goal rate in their past 3 games than ISU does. You simply don’t win on the road in the Big 12 with that kind of offensive futility, so I see TCU exploiting their matchup advantages for another easy win.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies -2 First Half @ New Orleans Pelicans (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I’m having a difficult time forgiving Memphis for letting a 35-point lead turn into a push on -7 Saturday night, but I’m working through it. Learning from that and betting them to jump out to another big lead here should help with the pain.

Hidden within this 8-1 ATS run for the Grizzlies is how much of a force they’ve been to start games. They’ve held the halftime lead in 8 of those 9 games, have an average plus-13.4 point margin, and that number balloons to 18.6 their past 5 games. Memphis is simply crushing teams out of the gate and should have the advantage here as well. New Orleans is on a back-to-back, and could easily come out flat after a blowout win last night.

The Pelicans have a -1.7 first-half margin on the season and are just 29-28 ATS on first-half spreads. In addition to being the best overall ATS team, Memphis is also the best against the halftime number at 37-20-1. It’s important to confirm Ja Morant’s ankle injury status for this game. But with him available, this team is a rocket ship early in games and should be again tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Miami-OH @ Ohio -11 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3

All Ohio seems to do in the MAC is lose to Toledo and beat up on everyone else. The Bobcats are 12-0 against teams not named Toledo, and that dominance has created some massive spreads that they haven’t covered often. But they are winning comfortably, with an average 13.8 point margin of victory.

That number is buoyed by a 23 point win at Miami-Ohio a month ago, something I think they’re capable of replicating here. The Redhawks have covered in just 2 of their 13 conference games, and are 2-8 ATS away from home. The top teams in the conference have given them a lot of trouble, and I see Ohio maintaining its dominance over all but one MAC foe.

Tiny Nick is 594-472 ATS (+82 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.